1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

order transaksi di bulan historis koreksi : 011009 1 Oktober 2009

Filed under: JUAL beli HARIAN — bumi2009fans @ 7:12 am

order beli bumi:
3100
order jual bumi:
3350
order beli bumi tambahan:
3150
… sinyal di bumi langsung tembus medium bollinger bands di 3175 … menuju 3150 karena jual menguat … aneh memang, sinyal beli tetap kuat di ihsg, tapi melemah cukup kuat di bumi … padahal top volume tetap dipegang bumi 40 menit buka … sinyal ihsg membal koreksi ke 2478, bumi malah mantul beli ke 3200 …
… sinyal reversal dari jual ke beli mulai terjadi di bumi saat di 3200 … bila reversal pattern ini berlanjut maka batas atas 3225 sudah menanti, dan ekspektasi menuju ke 3250 memang mungkin terjadi, walau pun volume kecil akan menghalangi tren optimistik itu …
… keraguan investor bumi amat terasa saat rentang harga 3175-3200 masih berlangsung … rentang itu cuma nempel di medium bollinger bands yang berarti investor mencari amannya saja … belum ada investor serius dan raksasa yang berani berekspektasi tinggi ke area beli kuat dan mendekati jenuh beli … mungkin isu fundamental pertemuan bei, bapepam lk dan bumi masih mengganjal khususnya investor asing, dan juga lokal tentu saja yang biasanya NUNUT abis asing …
order beli bumi tambahan:
3175
order jual bumi tambahan:
3200
order beli bumi:
3175 full matched
—————————————————– saham lain
order beli elsa:
340
order jual elsa:
370
375
order beli elsa tambahan:
345
order jual elsa tambahan:
350
—————————————————– saham lain
order beli bnii:
385
order jual bnii:
410
order beli bnii:
385 full matched
—————————————————– saham lain
order beli trub:
169
order jual trub:
174
175
order beli trub:
169 full matched
order beli trub tambahan:
167
168
—————————————————– saham lain
order beli adro:
1380
order jual adro:
1460
—————————————————– saham lain

Chart for Composite Index (^JKSE)jika disimak dari grafik, sinyal jenuh beli seharusnya sudah melanda ihsg … ada ekspektasi membal koreksi juga di ihsg hari ini … namun harga minyak yang masih naek, bahkan di atas 70, menunjukkan bahwa secara fundamental saham2 terkait harga itu akan diekspektasikan ada LABA PENJUALAN yang bagus … batas atas bollinger bands di 2500 akan memunculkan ekspektasi rekor baru di ihsg … batas bawah 2300 pun tidak terlalu mengerikan bwat investor rasional … tapi bwat yang jantungan, MINGGIR DAH, jauh2 dari saham … ekspektasi wajar adalah medium bollinger bands di 2390-an  … tapi euforia akhir Q3 2009 maseh terasa, apalagi terpicu harga minyak … windows dressing akan mulai pada bulan ini di amrik, semoga di indo juga kinclong lage …

… rentang Aug 07 s/d Aug 27 adalah saat batas atas 2500 pertama kali dalam 2009 tercapai, namun pasar bereaksi negatif karena 2 hal: periode puasa dan mendekati bulan horror September … volume transaksi yang relatif rendah membuat kecemasan tambahan untuk investor rasional … bila catatan historis ini diikuti lagi oleh sentimen pasar, maka ada kecenderungan koreksi menebal lagi di rentang Okt 01-Okt 16 … tapi rasanya, ekspektasi kabinet pro pasar maseh kuat, walau pun dijegal isu bailout sebuah bank swasta … dukungan publik terhadap sang RI 01 tampaknya belum pudar, sehingga posisi2 vital untuk pasar masih akan digenggam oleh para profesional … well, liat aja dah … kalo terbukti pro pasar yang masuk kabinet, mungkin ihsg bisa melampaui 2500 Okt ini …

… 30 menit buka, ihsg sudah memasuki area jenuh beli di 2481, setelah tembus 2475 sebagai batas atas bollinger bands … medium bollinger bandsnya di 2470 dan support di batas bawah bollinger bands di 2455 … tampaknya sinyal jenuh beli ini memang menghambat gerak menuju 2485 … mungkin saja macd golden cross terjadi lalu tren berbalik arah ke medium … beneran, 55 menit buka, koreksi terjadi di ihsg ke 2478 semoga ga tembus 2470 karena sebenarnya
… 75 menit buka, ihsg membal kembali ke area 2480 dalam kepungan sinyal jenuh beli … ekspektasi ke 2485 saja sudah indah, tapi volume transaksi masih juga sepi sepoi-sepoi …
… 50 menit jelang tutup, ihsg mantul kembali ke 2480 … sinyal jenuh beli tetap di ihsg tapi belum terlalu dalam, sehingga ekspektasi 2485 maseh mungkin terjadi dalam 10 menit jelang jeda … ooopss… ternyata sinyal jenuh beli bener2 menyeret reversal trend di ihsg menuju 2470 … masuk ke jenuh jual, ada tren mantul ke medium di 2477 … bener aja jeda di medium itu 🙂
… sinyal jual maseh kuat, walau sudah ada sinyal reversal ke ekuilibrium beli dan jual ihsg di 2479 … batas atas bollinger bands di 2484 bila reversal berlanjut … bila sinyal beli tetap mendatar, maka mungkin support di 2471 mesti dipertimbangkan .. mungkin saja 20 menit terakhir nanti bisa jadi penentu ke arah mana ihsg menuju …

—————————————————– saham lain
order beli indy:
2375
order jual indy:
2525
order jual indy tambahan:
2500
—————————————————– saham lain

Kamis, 01/10/2009 06:37 WIB

Pergerakan indeks sideways

oleh : Lahyanto Nadie

JAKARTA (bisnis.com): Sentimen inflasi membuat harga interest related stocks mengalami kenaikan kemarin. Pertanyaannya, dengan kenaikan yang tinggi, pelaku pasar tidak selling on news.

Trimegah Securities menilai IHSG sepertinya akan bergerak flat-naik di kisaran 2.425-2.482 dengan sentimen regional sebagai penentu. Hati-hati jika IHSG ditutup di bawah support pertama 2.450 karena akan membuka potensi retest di kisaran support 2.390-2.410.

Sementara itu, Optima Sekuritas berpendapat bahwa kenaikan Grup Astra mendorong 12 poin atau 50% kenaikan IHSG ke level 2.467. Saham BMRI yang melonjak 5% menyumbang 6 poin.

Saat kenaikan indeks investor asing justru net sell Rp132 miliar sehingga patut diwaspadai karena nilai transaksi masih tipis. Bursa diperkirakan menguji level 2.480 dengan menggunakan sentimen pengumuman inflasi Agustus.

Kresna Securities memperkirakan IHSG hari ini berpotensi melanjutkan kenaikan tetapi dalam range yang terbatas mengingat pergerakan indeks dalam pola sideways. Indikator teknis lain seperti Bollinger Band mengindikasikan hal yang sama, yaitu berada di pertengahan pola serta pergerakan stochastic mulai berbalik arah ke titik 47.3 dari sebelumnya di 41.2. Trading range antara 2445-2482.

Stocks slip but still have best quarter since 1998

Poor manufacturing report upsets stock rally; Market still posts best quarter in 11 years

By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
On Wednesday September 30, 2009, 7:06 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market had a fitting end to a stellar but erratic third quarter as investors still ambivalent about the economy shuttled between bouts of buying and selling.

Wall Street’s major indexes ended the July-September period with big gains Wednesday as investors placed more bets that the recovery will keep gathering momentum. The Dow Jones industrials and Standard & Poor’s 500 index both ended the quarter with gains of more than 15 percent, even as they pulled back modestly on the quarter’s last day.

The gains didn’t always come easily during the quarter, and the Dow’s performance is proof. The average, which had its best three-month showing in nearly 11 years, came within 82 points of reclaiming 10,000, only to fall back as investors’ optimism was chilled by news that housing and manufacturing weren’t as strong as many had thought.

On the quarter’s last day, stocks got an early lift from an improvement in the government’s report on the second-quarter gross domestic product, then tumbled on news of a surprise drop in the September Chicago Purchasing Managers index, which measures Midwestern manufacturing.

Analysts who are generally upbeat about the market’s prospects for the fourth quarter say the pattern is likely to hold: Bad news will hit the market, reminding investors of the economy’s fragility, and stocks will slide. But within a few days, or even the same day, they’ll recover as investors grab hold of the fact that no one expects the recovery, or stocks, to have an unbroken path upward.

“Any legitimate decline in the market is just seen as a buying opportunity,” said David Waddell, senior investment strategist and CEO of Waddell & Assoc. “That pattern has continued now ever since the rally began.”

The rally began in March, with the first signs that the economy might be recovering. The market’s stats show how huge the rally has been:

— The Dow is up 15 percent for the quarter, its best gain since the fourth quarter of 1998. It’s up 48.4 percent from its 12-year low of 6,547.05 in March. From a year ago, when the financial crisis worsened, the index is down 10.2 percent. The Dow is still down 21.4 percent from its peak of 14,164.53 in October 2007, but that’s quite an improvement considering it fell 53.8 percent from that record.

— The S&P 500 index is up 15 percent for the quarter and 56.3 percent from March. It is down 9.1 percent from a year ago and 32.5 percent from its high of 1,565.15 in October 2007.

— The Nasdaq composite index, which has a big concentration of technology stocks, was the best performer. It rose 15.7 percent in the quarter and is up 67.3 percent from March.

On Wednesday, the Dow ended down 29.92, or 0.3 percent, at 9,712.28 after falling nearly 134 points. The S&P 500 index fell 3.53, or 0.3 percent, to 1,057.08. The Nasdaq fell 1.62, or 0.1 percent, to 2,122.42.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 6.17, or 1 percent, to 604.28.

Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 6.4 billion shares compared with 5 billion shares traded Tuesday.

The next test for the market comes at the very start of the fourth quarter, with the release of the Institute for Supply Management report on manufacturing during September, and the government’s jobs report for the month on Friday.

The market could have trouble continuing its advance if economic reports don’t boost optimism.

Steve Hagenbuckle, managing principal for TerraCap Partners in New York, expects that corporate earnings will likely exceed expectations again for the third quarter and help boost the market.

The corporate numbers will continue to be met or exceeded so I think we’ll continue to run up,” he said.

But many investors have doubts. A recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors found that bearishness among investors stood at 44.5 percent, above the long-term average of 30 percent.
KECEMASAN INVESTASI BERISIKO MEMANG MASEH TINGGI

As a result, many investors are still paddling to safer investments. In August, investors funneled $42.9 billion into bond funds and only $3.9 billion into stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund trade group.

Some of the hardest-hit stocks in the market’s slide that intensified a year ago posted spectacular gains in the third quarter. Financial stocks led the 10 industry groups that make up the S&P 500 index with a gain of 25 percent. Industrials rose about 21 percent, as did materials companies like chemical producers and paper makers.

Some stocks logged enormous advances for the quarter. Newspaper publisher Gannett Inc. surged 250 percent, while Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. jumped 123 percent. There were exceptions. Commercial lender CIT Group Inc. tumbled 43.7 percent as investors worried about its stability. Sprint Nextel Corp. slid 17.9 percent.

The month of September wound up being far better for the market than many people anticipated.

Stocks had tumbled on Sept. 1 as traders worried about what might happen during that month, which has historically been the worst of the year for stocks. But the slide many had feared never materialized.

kecemasan sudah diekspektasikan, tapi BUKTI LEBIH KUAT DARIPADA KECEMASAN … indeks amrik naek cukup signifikan : S&P 500 +3,6%
The S&P 500 index finished this September with a gain of 3.6 percent, far better than the average loss of 1.2 percent it posted in Septembers going back to 1929. It wasn’t hard to beat the dismal performance of September last year, when it skidded 9.1 percent as credit markets froze following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

October tends to be a better month on average for the market, but it still strikes fear in many trading rooms since it’s home to the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Last year, it also saw the Dow plunge 1,874.19 points, or 18.2 percent, in just one week.

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