1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

windows period @ bei Q3 2009 : 121009 12 Oktober 2009

Filed under: Investasi Umum,Teknik Maen Saham — bumi2009fans @ 6:55 am

chartIHSG_3blackCROWS_091009Senin, 12/10/2009 00:00 WIB

Pasar cermati kinerja emiten triwulan III

oleh :

JAKARTA: Mulai munculnya informasi laporan keuangan triwulan III/2009 diperkirakan menjadi salah satu sentimen positif yang dicermati oleh pemodal pada sepanjang pekan ini, di samping rilis data ekonomi Amerika Serikat.

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) Bursa Efek Indonesia dinilai berpeluang menguat, meski secara teknis membentuk pola bearish dalam jangka pendek.

Analis PT Asia Financial Network David Manurung menilai pemodal saat ini mencermati kinerja emiten per triwulan III/2009, yang sedikit-banyak mencerminkan dampak konkret resesi ekonomi sepanjang tahun ini terhadap emiten nasional.

“Kinerja keuangan emiten mencerminkan kemampuan perusahaan nasional dan pertumbuhan ekonomi bertahan di tengah krisis. Informasi laporan keuangan sangat memengaruhi psikologis pemodal,” tuturnya kepada Bisnis akhir pekan lalu.

Di pasar AS, pelaku pasar diduga juga menggunakan sentimen tersebut untuk memutuskan posisi investasi saham. Dalam risetnya, analis Barclays Capital Ben Reitzes menilai saham teknologi di bursa AS akan menguat akibat ekspektasi kenaikan saham IBM sebesar 10%.

Analis riset PT Panin Sekuritas Tbk Purwoko Sartono mengatakan IHSG secara umum masih dalam tren penguatan yang didorong oleh minat investor asing, meski secara teknis telah membentuk pola three black crows yang mengindikasikan kemungkinan terjadi bearish dalam jangka pendek. “Di tengah depresiasi dolar, fund manager asing akan mengincar bursa negara berkembang [emerging market] yang memiliki potensi pertumbuhan lebih besar.”

IHSG sepanjang pekan lalu melemah 0,22% ke 2.474,40 setelah pada awal pekan berhasil bertahan di atas level psikologi 2.500. Indeks Bisnis-27 turun 0,85% ke level 225,17.

Bursa Asia

Indeks Shanghai naik 4,8%, memimpin kenaikan bursa Asia, Kospi tumbuh 1,9%. Indeks Hang Seng juga naik 0,033%. Sebaliknya, Nikkei melemah 1,87%. Dow Jones akhir pekan lalu menguat 78,07 poin (0,8%) ke level 9.865.

Harga surat utang negara (SUN) diprediksi terkoreksi dan mendongkrak imbal hasil 5 basis poin akibat aksi ambil untung.

Head of Pricing PT Penilai Harga Efek Indonesia Ronny Wicaksono menilai aksi ambil untung itu disebabkan kenaikan harga dalam 3 pekan terakhir akibat depresiasi dolar AS terhadap beberapa mata uang.

Indeks harga SUN menunjukkan peningkatan sejak 20 Agustus dari level 91,63 ke level 95,05 pada akhir pekan lalu. (21) (arif.gunawan@bisnis.co.id)

Oleh Arif Gunawan S.

Bisnis Indonesia

bisnis.com
Three Black Crows Candlestick Formation
THE OMINOUS CALL OF THREE BLACK CROWS

The three black crows candle formation does not happen very frequently in stock trading, but when it does occur swing traders should be very alert to the crow’s caw.

The candlestick pattern’s metaphor is three crows sitting in a tall three. Essentially, it is a reversal formation that occurs following a strong advance.

On the day the first black crow makes its appearance, the formation is most predictive if the first “crow” — or dark candlestick — closes below the white candle’s real body. That is the first step in setting up a Minor trend reversal — where today’s high is lower than yesterday’s high and today’s low is below yesterday’s low.

Two more long-bodied consecutive down days then ensue. On each of these days, it appears as if the stock wants to regain its former strength, as the stock opens higher than on the previous day. By the end of each session, however, the sellers regain control and the stock drops to a new closing low. Here is what three black crows candlestick pattern looks like:


Note that the lower shadows on three black crows are small, or in some cases even nonexistent. Although three black crows is a complete pattern in and of itself, swing traders should always be alert to what happens on the fourth day after the pattern is formed. Since there has been intense selling throughout the pattern, the stock may then be overextended to the downside. However, if the stock continues its negative pattern on the fourth day, then it is likely that the issue is going much lower.

The chart of Openwave Systems (OPWV) below, while not a classic example of three black crows, nevertheless illustrates many of its main features. Note that in late September the stock bottomed near $12 when two lower shadows in three candles tested the bottom Bollinger band. A Minor rally, which lasted eight trading days, then took OPWV back into an area of strong resistance just above $14.

On the first day of the three black crows pattern, which I’ve circled in the chart above, the black candle negatively engulfed the previous doji. (This is often a potent reversal signal in and of itself.) Days two and three follow the three black crows script closely, with the candles opening near their highs and closing near their lows. During this time, MACD and stochastics both gave sell signals and Openwave broke below its important 30-day moving average.

On the fourth day, the best the stock could eke out was a doji-like candle at $13. From there, Openwave fell below $11 before finally staging a short-term rally. Despite recent strength in the S&P and Nasdaq, the shares still remain well below the level at which the three black crows formation took place, and they should face significant resistance at $12.

Be very alert when you see three black crows appear on a chart. Their appearance indicates a period of powerful selling pressure. If on the fourth day the stock cannot gather strength, then lower prices are likely ahead.

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