Q3 2009 Advance US Real GDP Figure (released 8:30am on 29 Oct 2009)
Advance GDP figure for Q3 2009 to be +0.5% or better
It shows that the global pay-to-play prediction market is growing confident that Q3 GDP is headed into positive territory. In fact, this contract is up another 2 points today, and now reveals a 75 percent probability of a positive U.S. GDP number in Q3. Not bad. It’s another positive economic sign from folks betting with real money.
As I wrote in my latest column, Team Obama will surely take credit for any improving economic news. Republicans need to start crafting a smart political response.
… peringatan dari perusahaan tambang terbesar di dunia, bahwa komoditas tidak bisa selalu dijadikan alasan untuk berinvestasi di saham komoditas …
BHP warns on sustainability of demand
By William MacNamara in London and Peter Smith in Sydney
Published: October 21 2009 04:36 | Last updated: October 21 2009 19:05
Reasons for caution: China, the driver of the rally in metals prices this year, has nearly replenished its commodity stocks
Rio raises output target on China demand – Oct-14
Beijing rejects calls for 30% ore price rise – Oct-16
BHP and Rio abandon marketing venture – Oct-15
BHP Billiton, the miner that sells 19 different commodities from iron ore to oil, warned that improvements in the world economy did not necessarily mean that real and sustainable demand for raw materials had returned.
In its quarterly production report BHP noted that China, the driver of the rally in metals prices this year, has nearly replenished its commodity stocks, evident by “higher than normal stockpiles”.
That implies that the main supporter of the metals-mining complex may lose momentum over the next few months. While a return to growth in developed countries such as the US could offset this, such a sequence should not be expected, BHP said.
“Despite the low metals inventories in developed economies, there is little evidence yet of sustainable demand for metals emerging post the northern [hemisphere] summer,” it said.
BHP reiterated, however, that there are “signs of stabilisation in the developed economies, with positive signs of improvement in industrial production”.
At the large mining companies it has become de rigueur to remain “cautious about the near-term outlook”, as Tom Albanese, chief executive of Rio Tinto, said last week, even as metals production rises.
Such rises, BHP noted, are “from a very low base”. Many industrial metals more than halved in value by the start of 2009.
BHP’s iron ore production rose to a record 30.1m tonnes in the latest quarter, up 1 per cent from the 29.8m tonnes in the same period last year.
Its production trailed rival Rio Tinto, which last week reported a 12 per cent rise in iron ore production to 47.5m tonnes during the same period.
Both companies’ iron ore production is vital to China’s steel industry.
Copper production fell 8 per cent to 284,000 tonnes in the quarter compared with last year because of mechanical problems at Escondida in Chile and at Australia’s Olympic Dam.
BHP’s oil division produced 41.2m barrels of oil equivalent, up 18 per cent from last year.
“Production hit a high due to the successful delivery of projects in the deepwater of Gulf of Mexico and Western Australia over the past two years,” BHP said.
The division buoyed its earnings in the first six months and will keep doing so this year.
Gold was down 4 per cent. Lead, zinc and silver rose between 5 and 11 per cent.
“We continue to look for Chinese imports to more closely reflect real demand over the remainder of the calendar year,” BHP said. The shares fell 4½p to £18.22.