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pertumbuhan ekonomi yang wajar, itu yang dikejar … 031109 3 November 2009

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 4:08 am

03/11/2009 – 05:58
Hore! Wall Street Hijau
Mosi Retnani Fajarwati

(Istimewa)
INILAH.COM, New York – Indeks ditutup menguat namun bukan pada level terbaiknya seiring dengan volatilitas yang membayangi pasar.

Harga saham melonjak pada perdagangan Senin (2/11) usai data pada sektor manufaktur dan perumahan dipaparkan, walau pada siang harinya sempat berfluktuasi. Kekawatiran akan pulihnya perekonomian dari para investor masih membayangi lantai bursa.

Seperti pada GDP kuartal III ini, sebesar 3,5% yang sebagian besar disumbang dari belanja pemerintah. Selain itu, kinerja perusahaan yang membaik pada kuartal III, lebih dipicu dari adanya efisiensi biaya, bukan dari peningkatan penjualan.

Sedangkan sentimen positif yang muncul Senin adalah berupa data indeks the ISM mengenai aktivitas manufaktur sebesar 55,7. Lebih baik dari proyeksi para analis sebesar 53.

Sentimen positif juga datang dari tha National Realtors mengatakan penjualan rumah meningkat dalam 8 bulan terakhir. Indeks untuk Agustus naik 6,1% ke 110,1. Sedangkan para ekonom memproyeksikan 103,1.

Pada penutupan Senin, Dow naik 76,71 poin (0,8%) ke 9.789,44, S&P 500 naik 6,69 poin (0,7%) ke 1.042,88 poin, dan Nasdaq naik 4,09 poin (0,2%) ke 2.049,2.

Pekan ini, perdagangan berpoetensi fluktuasi karena akan banyak bermunculan data-data terkait perekonomian, termasuk data angkatan kerja.
Stocks waver, Dow gives up triple-digit gain

Stocks lose steam, turn negative in afternoon trading as financials retreat

By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer
On 3:32 pm EST, Monday November 2, 2009
NEW YORK (AP) — An early rally in stocks lost steam as a retreat in financial shares pulled the broader market lower.

Stocks jumped early Monday after strong reports on manufacturing and housing but were fluctuating by the afternoon. The Dow Jones industrial average was up about 20 points, after rising as much as 146 points in morning trading.

The market has been volatile in recent days as investors try to determine whether the bets they’ve been placing on a rebound in the economy over the past several months are still sound.

Investors are starting to worry that the pace of recovery they have been counting on will be hard to maintain. The government reported 3.5 percent growth in third-quarter GDP last week but much of that growth came from government spending. Likewise many companies are reporting stronger than expected earnings, but many of those gains came from cost-cutting instead of higher sales.

The seesaw trade on Monday came after the Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing activity grew in October at the fastest pace since April 2006. The ISM index clocked in at 55.7, much better than the 53 economists had expected. It was the third month in a row the index came in above 50, which indicates growth.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales increased for the eighth straight month in September. The index rose 6.1 percent from August to 110.1. It was the highest reading since December 2006 and more than 21 percent above a year ago. Economists had expected the index would be level at 103.8.

Stocks had posted their biggest losses in four months on Friday after rising sharply a day earlier on the stronger-than-expected GDP figures. Friday’s losses helped send the Standard & Poor’s 500 index into the red for October, breaking a seven-month streak of gains.

Even with the S&P 500’s 2 percent loss in October, the index is still up 53.2 percent since hitting a 12-year low in March.

“The question is, is the trend changing?” said Jim Dunigan, managing executive of investments at PNC Wealth Management. “We’ve been in an up trend here.”

In the final hour of trading, the Dow rose 19.65, or 0.2 percent, to 9,732.38. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 0.87, or 0.1 percent, at 1,035.32, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 5.81, or 0.3 percent, to 2,039.30.

Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.1 billion shares, compared with 1 billion shares at the same time on Friday.

Trading is likely to be volatile again this week as investors sift through a flood of economic data, including the government’s monthly employment report on Friday. The Federal Reserve will also weigh in on the economy after the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.42 percent from 3.39 percent late Friday.

The dollar reversed an early slide and moved slightly higher against other major currencies. Oil rose $1.13 to settle at $78.13, while gold rose on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other trading, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 5.22, or 1 percent, to 557.55.

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average dropped 2.3 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9 percent, Germany’s DAX index added 0.2 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.8 percent.
3 strong economic reports lift recovery hopes

Hopes for sustainable recovery get lift from news on manufacturing, construction, home sales

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
On 4:24 pm EST, Monday November 2, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hopes for the fledgling economic recovery got a boost Monday from better-than-expected news on manufacturing, construction and contracts to buy homes.

The surprisingly strong readings provided some comfort that the economy is packing more momentum than assumed going into the end of the year. Still, with jobs scarce, lending tight and consumers wary of spending, it’s unclear whether the gains can be sustained as government stimulus programs wind down.

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity grew in October at the fastest pace in more than three years. It was driven by businesses’ replenishing of stockpiles, higher demand for American exports and support from the government’s $787 billion stimulus program.

The ISM index shot up to 55.7 in October, the third straight reading above 50, which signals growth in the sector. It was the highest level since April 2006.

“It clearly looks like we are seeing a turnaround in the manufacturing sector,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Economists cautioned that the manufacturing pattern seen in the past two post-recession recoveries likely will be repeated this time: In each case, early strength in manufacturing, led by companies’ restocking of inventories, faded within a few months.

Wyss agrees that the ISM index could dip below 50 in the first quarter of next year. But he thinks that would be a temporary slump and not a sign that the economy was dipping back into recession.

“A bit of a slip in manufacturing would be consistent with a sluggish recovery,” he said.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, expanded at a 3.5 percent rate in the July-September quarter. That number provided compelling evidence that the longest recession since the 1930s was ending. Wyss said he expects GDP growth to slow to around 1.7 percent in the current quarter and to remain sluggish in the first half of next year.

Other economists are more optimistic, with some forecasting that GDP growth could come in around 3 percent in the current quarter. They pointed to the government report Monday that construction spending rose a bigger-than-expected a 0.8 percent in September, fueled by the strongest jump in home construction in six years. The gain in housing offset continued weakness in construction of office buildings, hotels and shopping centers.

In a third report, the National Association of Realtors said the volume of signed contracts to buy previously occupied homes rose 6.1 percent in September to a reading of 110.1. That’s the highest level since December 2006. And it’s more than 21 percent above a year ago.

The eighth straight monthly gain came as the housing market rebounds from the worst downturn in decades. The improvement has been aided by federal intervention to lower mortgage rates and bring more buyers into the market. For example, the contracts to buy homes rose as buyers scrambled to qualify for a tax credit for first-time buyers that expires at the end of this month. Congress is moving to extend the credit until April 30.

“We think this recovery is sustainable,” said Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. “We think there is enough government stimulus in place to push the economy forward and manufacturing will be getting support from a weakening U.S. dollar and strength in Asia which will boost exports.”

Manufacturing in China, which posted the strongest growth of the world’s major economies in the third quarter, expanded for an eighth straight month in October, according to a survey by a government-sanctioned industry group. European surveys also showed growth despite the recent climb by the euro and pound against the dollar. That currency gap makes Europe’s exports more expensive.

The expanding signs of a U.S. rebound gave an initial boost to investors on Wall Street Monday, but the rally lost some steam later in the day. The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 77 points to 9,789.44, while broader indexes edged up.

At the White House, President Barack Obama said the public and private sectors must find more ways to create jobs to continue the recovery. In remarks at the start of a meeting with his economic advisers, Obama credited his stimulus package for recent better economic figures, including the manufacturing boost.

The president said there was still “a long way to go,” especially in creating jobs.

The ISM, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its index showed manufacturing employment grew for the first time in 15 months, rising to 53.1 last month from 46.2. But the measure tracking new orders, a signal of future production, slipped in September.

Farm and construction equipment makers Deere & Co. and Caterpillar Inc. said last week that they’re adding back a few hundred jobs each. And Greenville, S.C.-based Kemet Corp., which makes parts for electric drive vehicles and alternative energy markets, is adding 113 jobs in the state because of a $15.1 million grant from the Department of Energy that is enabling the company to transfer some manufacturing from Europe to the U.S., said spokesman Dean Dimke.

But layoffs continue. Sun Microsystems Inc. said in October it plans to eliminate up to 3,000 jobs before it’s acquired by Oracle Corp.

In October, the ISM said 13 of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed expanded, led by petroleum and coal production, apparel and furniture. Three industries shrank.

“There’s still a lot of caution from our clients,” said Richard Zambacca, president of Think Resources, an engineer staffing company in Atlanta. “People are looking for funding.”

AP Business Writer Tali Arbel in New York and AP Real Estate Writer Alan Zibel in Washington contributed to this report.

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