1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

shock doctrine @ dubai … 291109 29 November 2009

Filed under: Investasi dan Risiko — bumi2009fans @ 7:43 am

… gw ga tau apakah ada kaitan antara shock doctrine versi Norma Klein dan krisis finansial Dubai … namun dalam doktrin geopolitik ini sebuah peristiwa makroekonomi dahsyat dan seketika akan terjadi saat krisis ekonomi memuncak pada sebuah negara sasaran … tentu saja teori konspirasi seperti ini tidak bisa dibuktikan secara kasat mata … jika pun berhasil dibuktikan, sang kambing item akan menyangkal full … namun karena peristiwa model ini selalu terjadi terutama pada negara2 berkembang, maka tidak terelakkan shock doctrine memang bisa dikatakan merupakan alat kapitalisme untuk merevitalisasi dan merestrukturisasi sistem kapitalis negara maju dan terutama para corporatist … para korporatis amat berkepentingan untuk kelanjutan daya hidup dan daya saing mereka dalam era kapitalisme yang amat kompetitif … kapitalisme bencana (disaster capitalism) akan memuluskan rencana2 besar para korporatis menguasai perekonomian amrik dan global, khususnya di negara2 berkembang yang mengalami bencana ekonomi seketika dan dahsyat … coba baca posting gw sebelumnya di : http://ekonomitakseriuslagi.blogspot.com/2009/07/wajahmu-mengalihkan-duniakushock.html

… tampaknya dubai effect ga terlalu berimbas luas :
Australia likely to shrug off debt fears
November 29, 2009

An aerial view of Burj Al-Arab hotel in Dubai. Photo: AFP
THE Australian sharemarket is expected to open 30 to 40 points higher tomorrow, shrugging off last week’s concerns about the Dubai debt crisis.

Global markets fell last week as Dubai World, a sovereign fund that owns container terminals in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane and rail interests in Queensland, sought to suspend repayments on all or part of its US$59 billion ($A65 billion) in debt for six months, sparking fears a fresh toxic debt panic would rock global financial markets.

Speculation mounts that the Australian assets, potentially worth more than $5 billion, will be put on the market.

Wall Street, which had been closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday when the Dubai news broke, finished down on Friday, with the Dow Jones falling 1.5 per cent. Markets in Asia had closed sharply lower on Friday but European exchanges, which had declined more than 3.2 per cent on Thursday, finished slightly higher.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 2.9 per cent on Friday, its biggest one-day loss in five months, while the Australian dollar fell below 90 US cents for the first time in three months.

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong declined 4.8 per cent on Friday while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Taiwan’s Taiex both fell 3.2 per cent.

Some analysts, however, believe that the declines have been exaggerated by lighter trading over a holiday period, and expect markets to rebalance this week as more details of the Dubai situation and banks’ exposure to it emerge.

The problems in Dubai have been known about for two years,” said Emil Wolter, a Hong Kong-based strategist for the Royal Bank of Scotland.

”But it is not the trigger for a brand new crisis. Yes, the magnitude of the situation is dramatic for Dubai. But Dubai is not America – and a property crisis in Dubai will not cause the same global crisis as a property crisis in the States.”

The rapidly growing Arab emirate has been regarded as an accident waiting to happen by some analysts as a building boom collapsed in the downturn, but it throws the spotlight on to the global increase in public debt.

According to credit ratings agency Moody’s, the total stock of sovereign debt will have risen by more than 50 per cent between the start of the financial crisis in 2007 and the end of next year, to more than $US15 trillion.

Meanwhile, analysts are looking to the response of Dubai’s wealthy neighbour Abu Dhabi and at what price it might bail out Dubai.


The debt questions
Q: Where did Dubai go wrong?

Dubai is part of the United Arab Emirates, seven city-states which have separate ruling families and budgets, but security, immigration and foreign policies in common. Abu Dhabi has nearly all the UAE’s oil. To keep up, from the 1950s Dubai diversified into ports, trade, services and finance.

Q: What is the extent of its problems?The emirate has said it has $US80 billion ($A88.4 billion) of debts, though some analysts say the true figure could be double that. Dubai World, the state-owned holding company whose bail-out plans triggered the current crisis, has liabilities of about $US60 billion, though only part of that is debt. The main problem is its real estate subsidiary Nakheel, which has huge bonds coming due, including an Islamic bond for $US3.5 billion in December.

Q: Why hasn’t Abu Dhabi come to Dubai’s aid?

Abu Dhabi has, via the federal central bank, bought one $US10 billion bond issued by the Dubai Government earlier this year, and, via its own banks, bought another $US5 billion bond this week.

Q: Western banks’ exposure to the debt seems quite small compared to the trillions we have become accustomed to. Why the panic?

Fears that exposed banks will have to write down losses, and that both Dubai and Abu Dhabi may have to sell worldwide assets, have hit prices everywhere.

Dubai looks to oil-rich neighbor for possible aid

Tale of 2 emirates: Dubai’s debts and Abu Dhabi’s oil-fueled growth

By Brian Murphy, Associated Press Writer
On 9:17 pm EST, Saturday November 28, 2009
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As world markets absorbed the shock of Dubai’s debt crisis, the ruler of the once-booming city-state left town for an important meeting in a desert palace. His hosts: the leaders of neighboring Abu Dhabi whose balance sheets are flush with oil revenue.

It’s not known what promises were made inside the halls in Al Ain during the parade of visitors for an important Islamic feast day on Friday. But their new relationship is clear. Abu Dhabi has the cash and cache to be Dubai’s white knight — in a Gulf version of a too-big-to-fail bailout or to help calm markets with promises to intervene if Dubai’s fiscal mess deepens.

The direction Abu Dhabi takes will likely set the tone for the coming week as analysts try to sort out what banks and institutions have the most at stake in the money crunch — which has suddenly shifted Dubai’s image from a desert dream factory of indoor ski slopes and a “seven-star” hotel to a reckless spender sideswiped by the recession and unable to pay its bills.

Just this month, Dubai’s ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, assured international investors that all was well with Dubai’s finances and told media critics to “shut up.”

“Depleting market confidence in Dubai carries serious risks for Abu Dhabi,” said Hani Sabra of Eurasia Group, a U.S.-based research firm that assesses political risk for foreign investors in Dubai and the Gulf.

“Differences between the two city-states remain on how to approach the economy and the financial crisis,” Sabra added. “But now Abu Dhabi is obviously the more dominant emirate.”

Dubai’s empty pockets — mostly drained by collapsing real estate prices and over-ambitious development plans — touched off panic selling across world markets on fears that the reckoning from the global recession is not over.

In a surprise announcement Wednesday, Dubai said it seeks a six-month delay in paying creditors on nearly $60 billion in debt held by its main development arm, Dubai World, whose holdings range from port operations around the world, Dubai’s iconic palm-shaped island and the luxury retailer Barneys New York. The next tranche was a $3.52 billion bond due Dec. 14 by Dubai World’s troubled real estate division, Nakheel.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average suffered its biggest drop in nearly a month — closing down 154.48, or 1.5 percent, to 10,309.92, in a shorted trading day because of the Thanksgiving break. Asian exchanges fell sharply for a second day, but European markets bounced back on confidence the Dubai damage would not spread to other Gulf economies.

Dubai and other Middle East financial markets reopen Monday after an Islamic holiday.

But much attention will remain on Abu Dhabi’s response. It stepped in earlier this year with a $10 billion bailout for Dubai when the first blast of the recession hit. Dubai ruler Sheik Mohammed has stressed the close bonds between the two most powerful emirates in the UAE, which celebrates its national day on Wednesday and offers a perfect forum to display unity.

An editorial in The National newspaper — which is bankrolled by Abu Dhabi and closely reflects the opinions of its rulers — said Dubai’s infrastructure is sound and pointed out General Motors’ revival after receiving a U.S.-backed bailout in comments that suggested an unchecked Dubai meltdown could harm the entire country.

“Confidence is a fragile commodity,” said the Friday editorial.

Yet Abu Dhabi’s largesse may be reaching some limits. On the same day that Dubai announced its debt payment “standstill,” two Abu Dhabi-controlled banks bought $5 billion in Dubai bonds for a stopgap cash infusion, but went no further.

“I guess Abu Dhabi is saying there will be no blank check for Dubai,” said Jane Kinninmont, a London-based specialist on Gulf economies at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

What Abu Dhabi could get for their money, however, is greater long-term influence over Dubai’s development policies. That would essentially mean giving the wealthy and more conservative rulers in the UAE’s capital the task of trying to rein in Dubai after years of living beyond its means.

Dubai crash landed about a year ago as the global economic downturn ended a sizzling property boom, which saw prices skyrocket and investors lining up for new projects. The state-backed Dubai World led the charge with a catalog brimming with ever-bigger ideas and the bold motto: “The sun never sets on Dubai World.”

Some were completed before the bubble burst, such as the Palm Jumeirah island that included a Hollywood A-list opening of the Atlantis resort in November 2008. But dozens of major projects, including entire mini-cities in the desert, have been shelved.

Abu Dhabi has moved ahead with more caution — comfortable in the fact it has vast oil wealth that Dubai does not enjoy.

Its rulers have concentrated on what they see as attempts to gain global stature as hub for culture and innovation: funding an alternative energy research center and building satellite museums for the Louvre and Guggenheim. The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is constantly on the hunt for new investments, including U.S. companies such as Citigroup Inc.

Abu Dhabi’s strategists are expected to dig deeper into Dubai World’s books before deciding their next move, analysts say.

Dubai officials said plans to restructure Dubai World will not include its profitable ports management division, DP World, which has a presence in nearly 50 facilities around the world. The main retooling will be to Dubai World’s battered real estate units, led by Nakheel.

A report from Goldman Sachs said the lenders HSBC Holdings PLC and Standard Chartered PLC could have the most exposure to Dubai debt, but the potential credit losses appeared relatively small. The deeper risks could directly hit Emirates’ banks and investment firms.

Christopher Davidson, an expert in Emirate affairs at Britain’s Durham University, wondered if Abu Dhabi wanted to become too deeply involved in lifting Dubai from its fiscal wreckage.

“There is no point throwing good money into Dubai’s black holes,” Davidson said. “These are mistakes of Sheik Mohammed and he needs to deal with them.”

Associated Press Writer Barbara Surk contributed to this report.

Gagal Bayar Dubai World
“Waspadai Uang Panas Jangka Pendek”
Pemerintah harus mengantisipasi masuknya uang-uang panas ini.
MINGGU, 29 NOVEMBER 2009, 07:17 WIB
Umi Kalsum, Agus Dwi Darmawan

Suasana kota Dubai (AP )
Setelah Dubai World, Siapa Lagi?
Dubai World Gagal Bayar, Dana Asing Tertahan
Imbas Dubai ke Rupiah & Saham Tak Signifikan
Wall Street Juga Kena Senggol Dubai World
Investasi Dubai di Indonesia US$ 7,21 Miliar
Web Tools

VIVAnews – Sejumlah analis menduga investasi akan tertahan pasca gagal bayar Dubai World yang membuat pasar saham dunia sempat terguncang. Namun ekonom Dradjad Wibowo yakin masih akan ada dana-dana yang masuk ke Indonesia. Yang mengkhawatirkan uang itu bersifat panas.

Dana-dana yang masuk itu berupa hot money atau uang panas berjangka pendek. Perkiraan itu menyusul tingkal imbal hasil (yield) surat utang negara yang relatif masih tinggi dibandingkan negara lain.

Ekonom dari Sustainable Development Indonesia (SDI) itu mengingatkan pemerintah agar mewaspadai pergerakan dana-dana asing ini. “Memang kalau dilihat secara prosentase jumlahnya sedikit dari total investasi, Tapi kalau dinominalkan jumlahnya akan cukup besar. Ini bisa membuat pasar bergejolak, bubble atau bergoyang,” kata dia.

Terkait nilai tukar rupiah, Dradjad memperkirakan tidak akan bergerak terlalu jauh. Rupiah akan tetap stabil dan tidak terpengaruh goyangnya bursa saham di Eropa, Asia dan AS.

Dradjad mengatakan rupiah bisa tetap stabil karena tertolong oleh nilai tukar dolar yang merosot. “Kalau rupiah bergerak, volatilitasnya hanya naik turun sedikit, tidak terlalu besar,” kata Dradjad kepada VIVAnews.

Sebagai pengelola utama pembangunan Dubai, konsorsium Dubai World meminta para kreditur untuk bersabar menerima pembayaran utang hingga Mei 2010. Utang pokok yang harus ditanggung Dubai World sebesar US$60 miliar. Bila termasuk bunga, beban yang harus ditanggung grup perusahaan dukungan pemerintah itu menjadi sekitar US$80 miliar. Di Indonesia konsorsium ini menanamkan investasi senilai US$ 7,21 miliar di tujuh proyek.

• VIVAnews
Krisis Dubai World Bisa Bikin Indonesia Langka BBM
Minggu, 29 2009 16:11 WIB 237 Dibaca | 0 Komentar
JAKARTA–MI: Kasus gagal bayar utang Dubai World sekitar US$80 miliar berpotensi membuat defisit pasokan minyak mentah dan bahan bakar minyak (BBM) ke seluruh dunia, termasuk Indonesia.

Hal ini disebabkan Dubai World merupakan pemain utama perdagangan crude (minyak mentah) dan BBM dunia yang bisa menentukan jumlah pasokan hingga fluktuasi harga komoditas tersebut. “Dubai World selama ini memainkan pendapatan melimpah dari penjualan minyak mentah di negaranya ke sektor-sektor lain. Perputaran uang hasil penjualan minyak mentahnya dilarikan ke sektor lain termasuk properti,” ujar analis geopolitik perminyakan Dirgo Purbo, Minggu (29/11).

Dampak lainnya, kondisi ini bisa memicu melonjaknya harga minyak dunia ke kisaran US$80 per barel. “Kesulitan yang dialami Dubai World bisa membuat Uni Emirat Arab seenaknya menawarkan harga crude sebagai kompensasi agar bisa membayar utang,” ungkap Dirgo.

Pada saat seperti itu, Dubai World akan memilih konsumen yang mampu menawar harga tinggi untuk mendapatkan prioritas pasokan. Situasi ini, imbuh Dirgo, tidak menguntungkan Indonesia sebagai pengimpor crude dan BBM karena harus bersaing ketat dengan negara importir lain.

“Bayangkan, Indonesia harus bersaing dengan China, Korea, Jepang dan negara-negara Asia Timur lain yang mempunyai kemampuan beli lebih tinggi. Kalau sudah begitu, pastinya Dubai akan lebih memprioritaskan mereka,” ungkap Dirgo.

Bahkan, kondisi itu bisa membuat Indonesia mengalami kelangkaan pasokan BBM mengingat ketergantungan negeri ini terhadap crude dan BBM impor cukup tinggi. “Sekarang kita termasuk 10 negara pengimpor minyak terbesar dunia. Kalau pasokan crude dan BBM tidak ada, kelangkaan BBM tidak bisa terhindarkan,” pungkas Dirgo. (Jaz/OL-04)
… dampak terhadap RUPIAH : http://sahambbri.wordpress.com/2009/11/29/rp-mungkin-maen-di-rentang-9300-9700-maseh-291109/


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