1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

politik itu KOTOR … 271209 27 Desember 2009

Filed under: Investasi dan Risiko — bumi2009fans @ 11:46 pm

… apa seh yang ga kotor? bahkan yang paling sakral pun bisa jorok dah … karena manusia punya kelemahan mendasar, yaitu tidak seorang pun yang sempurna … bahkan there is no perfect crime, karena manusia tidak mampu menjadi sempurna, bagaimana bisa membuat sebuah kejahatan yang sempurna, tanpa bisa terdeteksi sama sekali … nah, dalam 3 bulan terakhir, Indonesia terus menerus didera persoalan politik kotor, bahkan setelah pilpres 1 ronde tuntas … rakyat pemilih pasti bingunk dah … gw juga milih, tapi gw ga bingunk dah …
Southeast Asia
Dec 24, 2009

ASIA HAND
Politics set to spoil Southeast Asia’s recovery
By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK – After suffering contractions not felt since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, Southeast Asian economies are poised to bounce back strongly in 2010. As the region whipsaws between bust and boom, governments will be torn between policies that support recovery and contain emerging asset price bubbles, which are already percolating in areas of Northeast and South Asia.

Conjecture that Southeast Asia’s export-oriented economies might, through increasingly diversified trade flows, including with China and the Middle East, decouple from the US-led downturn foundered as economic growth collapsed across the region in late 2008 and early 2009. While the region’s banks and debt profiles are comparatively sound, the collapse of first US, and then

European, export markets were more than intra-regional trade flows could support.

Economists now predict strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010 across Southeast Asia, buoyed by rising global growth and fast recovering exports. Credit Suisse, for one, predicts growth of 5.7% in Indonesia, 5.5% in Malaysia, 4.3% in the Philippines, 4.7% in Thailand, and 6% in Singapore, the region’s most open economies. Those fast clips compare with projected year-on-year sharp declines in 2009 for the same sequence of countries of 4.4%, minus 2.3%, 1.6%, minus 3.3%, and minus 1.8%. Other big banks, including HSBC and JP Morgan, are similarly bullish on the region’s growth prospects for 2010.

Nearly all regional governments ramped up spending and eased monetary policies in response to the crisis. Tentative signs of stabilization became apparent in the first quarter, recovery in production by the second, and to varying degrees expanding rather than contracting economic growth rates by the second half of 2009. A recent HSBC research report estimates that “even if we assume that the various governments only deliver half of what they have promised, the addition to GDP will be no less than two percentage points next year according to our growth model.”

With exports also expected to recover, many private economists believe that the region’s central banks will need to move swiftly to rein in stimulus measures, especially low interest rates, to avoid inflating asset price bubbles that could short-circuit recovery and if left unchanged lead to more damaging domestic-driven imbalances, particularly in property and other asset price speculation.

While Southeast Asia’s economies wholly failed to decouple from the US’s and Europe’s collapse, economists believe the region’s central banks must soon move to unpeg their interest rate policies from the United States’ Federal Reserve. Policymakers in Southeast Asia have long shadowed US rate cycles to maintain currency competitiveness, but are now badly mismatched in light of the US’s extraordinary financial troubles and the region’s comparatively sound finances and liquidity rich banks.

None of the region’s central banks, however, has indicated a move in that tighter direction and continue to intervene in foreign exchange markets to tamp down any significant appreciation of their currencies. They are partially constrained by China’s fixed rate regime and the threat an appreciation vis-a-vis the yuan would have on export recovery. At the same time, HSBC predicts the US will not start raising rates until at least 2011.

Meanwhile, there are nascent signs of equity and property price bubbles. Despite overall negative economic performances, Southeast Asia’s stock markets zoomed across the board in 2009; by mid-December, gains in local-currency terms were as high as 83% in Indonesia, 43% in Malaysia, 59% in Singapore, and 54% in Thailand. Another sign of froth: Singapore’s property prices recently zipped past their 2007 record levels, which at a time of breakneck economic growth many analysts considered to have entered bubble territory.

Rising political risks, including in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, and to a lesser degree Vietnam, threaten to muddle timely policy responses as embattled governments are expected to shy from rolling back politically popular stimulus measures. They are arguably the countries that will need to move the quickest in re-calibrating their policy mixes to avoid medium term asset price bubbles and a jarring repeat of an accelerated boom and bust cycle.

Nowhere are those risks higher than in Thailand, which looks to enter a fourth year of destabilizing political turmoil that has been a drag on growth and recovery. Protesters loyal to criminally convicted former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, threatened to stage a “million-man” march on Bangkok in late November, but reversed their plans at the eleventh hour. They are expected to ramp up their activities dramatically by February if a Thai court rules to seize over US$2 billion worth of Thaksin’s assets frozen in Thai banks.

Against that political backdrop, the Bank of Thailand has tracked closely the US’s near zero percent interest rate policy and announced a second major fiscal stimulus package that promises to spend mostly off-budget 1.4 trillion baht (US$42 billion), or 16% of GDP, on investment between 2010 and 2012. HSBC believes that “given lingering political uncertainties, the Bank of Thailand may stay on hold a little longer than its neighbors … and even then the path of tightening should prove gradual at best.”

Credit Suisse warns that “rating agencies could downgrade Thailand’s debt ratings in 2010, absent an improvement in the political situation”. The bank noted in recent research that Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s all have negative outlooks on their Thai debt ratings and “could downgrade the sovereign within the BBB category unless prospects for sustained political stability improve substantially. They are likely to watch the next election closely to see whether it produces a more stable government that is accepted across society and is able to govern more effectively.”
Faced with the prospect and ramped up street protests, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s government is expected to maintain loose monetary and exchange rate policies, particularly with snap elections potentially on the horizon. A JP Morgan economist who requested anonymity noted that the government had failed to remove crisis-induced price-support subsidies for food and services even though the populist measures were due to expire in December.

Sudden new political risks could also weigh on Indonesia’s policy response to the changing economic environment. With a strong electoral mandate, newly elected President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was until recently expected to push through structural and regulatory reforms that would lower the country’s risk premium on its domestic and foreign debt. Indonesia performed comparatively well during the global economic downturn, but because of concerns over creditor rights and a weak legal system maintains the highest cost of credit in all of Asia.

Yudhoyono’s ability to push through those reforms, some fear, will be significantly weakened by the recent scandals that have hit his government, one over alleged official attempts to undermine a quasi-independent and highly effective counter-corruption agency, and another surrounding alleged irregularities in his previous government’s handling of a state bailout of a mid-sized bank. The scandals are expected to embolden conservative elements in parliament that had loosely aligned with Yudhoyono after his sweeping election win.

Recent HSBC research raises the question of how much of the Indonesian economy’s resilience during the global downturn was related to one-off, election-related spending which has now faded away. “It is certainly hard to believe that the strong improvement in private consumption and confidence through the global crisis (Indonesia must have been one of the only countries to experience this) had nothing to do with the timing of the parliamentary and presidential elections.”

At the same time, Bank Indonesia has maintained a strong pro-growth bias which even before Yudhoyono’s political troubles was expected to move slowly if at all in tightening monetary policy. Credit Suisse notes that “inflation rates have recently surprised on the low side, but the trend is unlikely to last: we expect annual inflation to reach 6% in 2010.” The risk is that the central bank maintains a monetary policy that inflates asset bubbles and renders ineffective later incremental rate hikes.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak pleased markets when he announced in October his government’s fiscal consolidation plans in the 2010 budget, which provisionally will narrow the budget deficit to 5.6% of GDP in 2010 from 7.4% this year. That announcement came before a Malaysian court decided to follow through on hearing criminal sodomy charges against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who was tried and jailed on similar charges in the late 1990s and has since emerged as a democratic icon in the country.

The trial threatens to ramp up political risks, including through street actions, and, if history is a guide, retaliatory government responses. Credit Suisse believes that “political pressures could delay or water down the planned [fiscal] reforms”. Other big bank economists believe political instability will likely restrain Bank Negara, the country’s central bank, from raising benchmark interest rates above their current level of 2% even as inflationary risks rise.

It’s a policy decision – as will be weighed elsewhere in the region – where political considerations could trump technocratic sense and set in motion Southeast Asia’s next bust to boom to bust cycle.

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online’s Southeast Asia Editor. He may be reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
Hartati Moerdaya Akui Bantu Kampanye SBY
Minggu, 03 Januari 2010 | 13:17 WIB

TEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta – Pengusaha Hartati Moerdaya mengaku membantu kampanye pemilihan Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Namun ia menampik menyumbang uang dengan nilai yang besar.

“Kalau (tim kampanye) bikin acara, (saya) bantu nyiapin. Kalau tim sukses butuh apa, jalan sama-sama, seadanya saja,” ujarnya saat dihubungi via telepon, Minggu (3/1).

Ia enggan menyebutkan berapa banyak total dana yang telah diberikannya pada tim sukses. Yang jelas, kata Hartati, ia tak menggelontorkan dana yang besar. “Memangnya saya punya mesin cetak uang, ngobral-ngobralin uang? Saya sendiri punya tanggung jawab besar, nanti nggak bisa bayar karyawan saya,” tuturnya.

Dia pun membantah kedekatannya dengan Presiden disebabkan sumbangannya pada tim kampanye. Menurut Hartati, hubungan baiknya dengan Presiden adalah karena ia sering mengadakan kegiatan sosial yang mendapat pujian dan dukungan moral dari Yudhoyono.

Pengusaha dengan bisnis utama sepatu itu mengaku tersinggung saat dituding terlibat kasus Century oleh George Junus Aditjondro. “Itu buku ngawur, harusnya ada buktinya, jangan sembarangan,” katanya.

Namun ia belum berencana melakukan tindakan hukum terhadap Aditjondro. “Ini orang gila, kalau saya layani, ikut-ikutan gila. Politik itu jelek banget ya.”

BUNGA MANGGIASIH

Iklan
 

risiko FRAUD di ONLINE TRADING … 271209

Filed under: Investasi dan Risiko — bumi2009fans @ 11:24 pm

Aturan Online Trading Harus Jelas
Minggu, 27 Desember 2009 – 12:10 wib

JAKARTA – Penerapan online trading yang semakin marak dilakukan oleh sekuritas harus memiliki aturan yang jelas untuk melindungi investor. Jika tidak, dikhawatirkan terjadi kejahatan yang memanfaatkan kemudahaan teknologi tersebut.

“Online trading member banyak kemudahan,tetapi di lain sisi tentu juga memiliki resiko.Ini yang harus mendapat perhatian dari otoritas. Sebab, perdagangan secara online di tahun-tahun mendatang bakalan marak,” ujar Pengamat Pasar Modal, Haryajid Ramelan, di Jakarta.

Menurut Haryajid, pihak otoritas dalam hal ini Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal-Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) dan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) harus menyiapkan aturan yang memadai.

Pihak regulator, harus melakukan pengawasan transaksi dengan proses online. Sebab, tingginya frekuensi yang terjadi dengan menggunakan sistem online, memiliki potensi besar dimanfaatkan pihak-pihak tertentu untuk mempermaikan harga saham di pasar bursa. Selain itu kemungkinan adanya hacking juga harus menjadi perhatian. Sebab, jangan sampai nantinya investor dirugikan akibat transaksi yang tidak dilakukan bersangkutan, namun menggunakan account milik investor tersebut.

“Kemungkinan-kemungkinan itu bisa terjadi. Sehingga harus ada pengawasan yang jelas,” terang Haryajid, yang juga ketua Asosiasi Analis Efek Indonesia.

Menanggapi hal itu, Direktur Perdagangan dan Pengaturan Anggota Bursa BEI, Wan Wei Yiong mengatakan, pihaknya tengah menyusun aturan yang akan menjadi acuan perdagangan online.Acuan tersebut akan diterapkan setelah Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam- LK) mengesahkan aturan perdagangan BEI.

“Acuan tersebut akan mengatur hubungan antara anggota bursa (AB) dan nasabah.Misalnya, bagaimana cara nasabah memesan (order) saat jaringan putus,” ungkapnya. Acuan tersebut merupakan petunjuk pelaksanaan aturan perdagangan.

Dimana itu hanya merupakan penjelasan tambahan dari aturan induk yang nantinya disahkan oleh Bapepam-LK. “Ini akan menjadi penjelasan tambahan,” terangnya.

Selain itu, BEI juga memperketat standar know your clients (KYC) untuk anggota bursa yang mengimplementasikan online trading. Salah satu yang akan diatur kontrak perjanjian perusahaan efek dengan nasabah yang menggunakan fasilitas online trading.

“Dalam kontrak nasabah yang menggunakan online trading harus dicantumkan penyelesaian jika terjadi kesalahan penggunaan. Sehingga tidak menimbulkan konflik antara nasabah dengan perusahaaan efek. Harus ada disclaimer- nya,” jelas Wei Yiong. Sebelumnya, Bapepam-LK mengatakan, tengah melakukan kajian khusus untuk aturan perdagangan secara online.

Pengaturan tersebut akan dituangkan dalam peraturan perdagangan bursa yang saat sedang dibahas Bapepam-LK.

“Kita memang berencana akan mengatur soal online trading. Namun kita memerlukan waktu untuk melakukan kajian terlebih dahulu dari negara lain,seperti apa mereka mengaturnya. Apakah dalam peraturan perdangangan atau peraturan tersendiri,” ujar Kepala Biro Lembaga Transaksi Efek Bapepam-LK Nurhaida. (wdi)
(Juni Triyanto /Koran SI/rhs)

 

biar cekak, tapi TEGAK … 271209

Filed under: Investasi dan Risiko — bumi2009fans @ 11:14 pm

Berumah Tangga dengan Gaji Rp3,5 Juta
Sabtu, 26 Desember 2009 – 13:55 wib

Salam sejahtera. Saya adalah seorang karyawan dengan gaji Rp3,5 juta sebulan. Pertanyaan saya, cukupkah saya berumah tangga dengan pendapatan seperti ini? Terima kasih untuk sarannya.

Jawaban :

Halo Pak Yayan Ikhsan yang berbahagia,

Selamat kalau Bapak merencanakan menikah, itu niat yang mulia. Menurut hemat kami nilai uang dan pola hidup itu relatif, apalagi kalau kita membandingkan biaya hidup di pedesaan atau kota kecil dengan kota besar.

Karenanya, tanpa mengetahui secara rinci posisi anggaran Bapak saat ini dan calon istri, kami mengajukan usulan anggaran Bapak dan keluarga nantinya:

Alokasi Rasio KC123 Usulan Rasio Suami Bekerja Suami-Istri Bekerja
Rp3.500.000,- Rp7.000.000,-
Sharing 2-15% 2,5% Rp 87.500,- Rp 175.000,-
Savings 10-30% 27,5% Rp 962.500,- Rp 1.925.000,-
Spending 45-55% 55% Rp 1.925.000,- Rp 3.850.000,-
Borrowing 0-35% 15% Rp 525.000,- Rp 1.050.000,-

Berbagi (sharing) jangan dilupakan, Pak, disini kami usulkan 2,5 persen dari pendapatan bulanan. Kemudian ingat untuk menabung atau berinvestasi (savings), sekira 27,5 persen dari pendapatan bulanan.

Jika telah menghitung kebutuhan dana darurat dan menemukan pilihan asuransi jiwa, porsinya dapat diambil dari tabungan, sehingga komposisinya menjadi tabungan, investasi dana darurat, dan cicilan polis asuransi jiwa.

Kemudian alokasikan pendapatan bulanan maksimal 55 persen untuk pengeluaran (spending), baik pribadi, transportasi, rumah tangga dan anak (kelak ketika sudah berumah tangga). Adapun pinjaman (borrowing) yang kami anjurkan disini yang sifatnya produktif, mulai dari KPR (kredit pemilikan rumah) ataupun kendaraan yang sifatnya menunjang mencari nafkah atau kerjaan sampingan.

Fase hidup orang pada umumnya adalah lahir, lulus sekolah dan bekerja, menikah dan kemudian punya anak, pensiun dan akhirnya meninggal. Ingatlah, kalau Bapak dan pasangan perlu membiasakan diri dulu dengan anggaran yang disepakati sebelumnya. Setelah mampu membiasakan diri berdisiplin, baru kemudian bisa melanjutkan ke tahap perencanaan keuangan, disesuaikan dengan fase hidup tersebut.

Selamat mencoba, semoga sukses dan selamat menempuh hidup baru!

Manuel Pakpahan, CFP®
Perencana Keuangan Independen
CEO KeluargaCerdas123.com
(//ade)

 

2010, uda ada RAMBU SUKU BUNGA TINGGI DOLAR…271209

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 10:09 pm

Stocks seen notching up more gains in 2010

Wed, Dec 16 2009
By Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks should score a second straight year of gains in 2010 as an economic recovery brightens the profit outlook, extending the market’s rebound from the depths of a punishing financial crisis, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Most of the upside is forecast for the first half of the year as investors bet on a more stable economy boosting sectors like technology, industrials and materials.
The second half of 2010 will be more muted as investors seek clarity on when and how the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates or draining the financial system of excess liquidity, or both.
The survey of about 40 analysts at top Wall Street dealers, brokerages and fund managers taken over the last week showed a median target of 1,208 for the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index at the end of next year.
That’s an increase of roughly 10 percent from the S&P’s closing price on Tuesday of 1,107.93.
“Most of the economic numbers still point to sustained growth going into 2010,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York. “I am not looking for a double-dip recession. The debt problems in Europe, Dubai, all over the place are manageable. That’s another plus.”
Last month, concerns over a possible debt default by the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned conglomerate Dubai World spooked global markets but they have since regained their poise.
The median S&P 500 target for year-end 2009 was 1,103, barely changed from a target of 1,080 in the September poll. That would mean a gain of 22 percent for the S&P 500 this year It is already up 64 percent since the March lows.
For the Dow Jones industrial average, the median forecast for end-2010 was 11,100. The median forecast was 10,426 for the end of 2009, up from 10,010 in September. That would mean an increase in the Dow of nearly 19 percent for 2009.
Last year, the S&P closed down 38 percent, its first annual loss in six years and the worst drop since the 1930s.
The market crash and deep economic downturn followed months of housing and credit market problems, and then, in September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
FED WATCH
The Fed took aggressive steps to keep the U.S. economy afloat, including pushing interest rates to near-zero levels and taking a series of extraordinary steps aimed at backstopping financial markets and getting credit flowing again.
Data pointing to stabilization in the economy and the possibility of Fed tightening ahead included a surprisingly upbeat November U.S. non-farm payrolls report that showed the unemployment rate dipped to 10 percent from 10.2 percent.
Some analysts expected the Fed to consider rate hikes in the second half of the year or early in 2011. The latest Reuters consensus has no hike in the federal funds rate until the fourth quarter of next year.
“Somewhere around mid-year the tailwinds begin to become headwinds,” said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. But he added that U.S. corporate earnings should underpin optimism in stocks in the first-half of 2010.
Companies with global exposure should do particularly well on the back of dollar weakness, Kleintop said.
(Additional reporting by Ellis Mnyandu, Leah Schnurr, Angela Moon, Ryan Vlastelica, Charles Mikolajczak, Edward Krudy, Rodrigo Campos and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

 

sepi………. 271209

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 9:16 pm

Jelang Pekan Terakhir, Lantai Bursa Senyap
Minggu, 27 Desember 2009 | 19:24 WIB

TEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta – Perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia pekan depan diperkirakan bakal lesu. “Indeks tidak akan bergerak terlalu banyak, mungkin bertahan pada indeks pekan lalu,” kata analis PT Finan Corpindo Edwin Sinaga saat dihubungi Tempo, Senin (27/12).

Pada penutupan perdagangan Rabu, 23 Desember lalu, indeks harga saham gabungan berada pada level 2.474. Tinggal empat hari sebelum penutupan perdagangan pada akhir tahun yang berakhir pada 31 Desember.

Sepinya pasar menurut Edwin disebabkan holiday mood karena libur panjang akhir tahun. “Tidak ada hal menarik yang akan membuat investor berspekulasi,” kata dia. Stabilitas politik juga diperkirakan masih tenang, apalagi Panitia Khusus Angket Century Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat tengah reses.

Emiten anggota bursa juga diperkirakan masih menahan diri untuk tidak melakukan aksi korporasi. “Tidak ada saham yang akan mendominasi naik-turunnya indeks. semuanya flat saja,” ujarnya. Kondisi ini diperkirakan baru akan berubah pada awal tahun 2010.

FAMEGA SYAVIRA

 

KEDEWASAAN INVESTOR SAHAM

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 7:28 am

… setelah maen reksa dana saham sekira 7 taon, mulai Desember 2002 dengan Schroder Dana Prestasi Plus dan 8 bulan sebagai investor saham langsung, maka gw punya kesimpulan:  KEDEWASAAN SEORANG INVESTOR BENER2 DIUJI SAAT MAEN SAHAM  … ujian terberat seorang investor tidak ada yang lebe berat daripada MAEN SAHAM … LENGKAP SUDAH BATAS2 PSIKOLOGIS SEORANG INVESTOR DIBANTAI DAN DIGILING, mulai dari KESABARAN, KETABAHAN, KETAHANAN, KEULETAN, KESUNGGUHAN, KETELITIAN, KEJELIAN, KETEKUNAN, KERAJINAN, dan lain-lain dah … dan gw kayanya maseh perlu lebe DALAM, TINGGI, DAN LUAS MENYELAMI KARAKTERISTIK PSIKOLOGI GW SENDIRI YANG TERKAIT DENGAN UJIAN2 DI ATAS … kesabaran, sebagai salah satu contoh, JELAS PERLU SEKALI, DAN PENTING SEKALI TERUTAMA BWAT STRATEGI INVES JANGKA PANJANG … tanpa kesabaran, SULIT SEKALI SESEORANG MAEN SAHAM LALU BOBO DAN TIDAK PEDULI PADA HARGA SAHAM … padahal KETIDAKPEDULIAN PADA TREN HARGA SEHARI-HARI ADALAH CIRI UTAMA SEORANG INVESTOR MURNI … KALO SEORANG TRADER, kaya gw, MAKA KESABARAN TIDAK TERLALU PENTING DAN UTAMA … KEJELIAN itu, untuk seorang investor dan terutama untuk TRADER,  harus DIASAH TERUS dengan berbagai alat, seperti di posting ini :  https://transaksisaham.wordpress.com/2009/12/09/analisis-teknikal-sederhana-saham2-yang-gw-transaksikan-everyday/ … tapi alat2 bantu ini tetap harus dipahami dengan jeli dan semakin didalami dengan KERAJINAN … KESUNGGUHAN UNTUK SEORANG INVESTOR MURNI BERBEDA DARI SEORANG TRADER … kesungguhan seorang investor murni adalah FOKUS PADA MASA DEPAN YANG BERJANGKAPANJANG … seorang trader harus DISIPLIN MENERAPKAN STRATEGI TRADING YANG DIPAHAMINYA, TERUTAMA PADA FOKUS PADA LABA DALAM TREN TURUN ….  bagi KEBANYAKAN INVESTOR YANG BERMENTAL BUNGA DEPOSITO AMAT DISARANKAN UNTUK BACA POSTING GW INI :  https://transaksisaham.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/investor-inves-di-bei-jauh-lebe-banyak-jumlahnya-191209/ dan http://sahamadaro.wordpress.com/2009/05/27/pelajaran-paling-pahit-bwat-investor-pemula-jadilah-orang-tolol/

… kata BODOH ITU JUSTRU MENOLONG GW UNTUK BELAJAR DAN BELAJAR TRUS DALAM MERAIH LABA, DAN, JIKA BOLEH DAN BISA, LABA YANG JAUH LEBE DAHSYAT  … gw tetap investor bodoh seh karena MASEH TERLALU BANYAK KEKUATAN KETAHANAN MENTAL GW YANG MESTI DIUJI SUPAYA BISA MENJADI INVESTOR SAHAM YANG SECERDAS WARREN BUFFETT, THE ORACLE FROM OMAHA … gw seh, melihat beliau dengan banyak memirsa berita2 cnbc soal WB dan membaca dari berbagai sumber soal WB … gw sadar ada banyak sekali CIRI KEDEWASAAN INVESTOR SAHAM MODEL WB yang gw sama sekali belum punya … doi mulai 1950-an sebagai investor pemula yang bersekolah di SMP, lalu terus belajar formal s/d meraih (kalo ga keliru) Master in Chemical Engineering … tapi MASTER utamanya jelas adalah THE MASTER OF GLOBAL STOCKS, apalagi setelah dinyatakan sebagai ORANG TERKAYA KEDUA di bawah Bill Gates … kedewasaan investor terkait dengan nilai asetnya? JELAS SEKALI … faktor KEBERUNTUNGAN TIDAK TERLALU PENTING LAGE … faktor KEDEWASAAN PSIKOLOGIS SEORANG INVESTOR SAHAM ITU AMAT PENTING … tanpa kedewasaan, alat bantu robot menjadi utama … pada setiap alat adalah SEMATA-MATA ALAT BANTU YANG PUNYA TINGKAT KESALAHAN PRAKTIKAL DAN AKADEMIK YANG TERTENTU BESARNYA … seperti kata Taleb, doktor bidang statistik yang menulis beberapa buku yang mengkritik para praktisi dan broker saham yang terlalu yakin pada alat2 bantu teknikal, bahwa BLACK SWAN PHENOMENON itu bisa terjadi di mana saja, termasuk saat berinvestasi saham … maksudnya SESUATU YANG SAMA SEKALI TIDAK TERDUGA-DUGA BISA SAJA TERJADI DI HIDUP kita … termasuk di kehidupan seorang investor saham model WB, yaitu beliau pun PERNAH RUGI (POTENTIAL LOSSES) sekira BEBERAPA MILYAR DOLAR AMRIK … tapi BELIAU JALAN TERUS DENGAN BERBEKAL KETABAHAN DAN KEULETAN, sehingga WB PUN SEKARANG NILAI ASETNYA MENINGKAT LAGE  … gw PASTI MAU BANGET PUNYA CIRI KEDEWASAAN INVESTOR MODEL WB donk 🙂

catatan tentang WB 1995:
Monday, Apr. 03, 1995
HOW SMART IS WARREN BUFFETT?
By JOHN ROTHCHILD
A friend of mine, who shares my weakness for making ill-fated investments, recently bought a share of Berkshire Hathaway. That’s the flagship company of Warren Buffett, who recently surpassed Bill Gates as the nation’s richest human. Like many of us, Buffett started with a modest bankroll, only he managed to turn his into $13 billion-plus. We’ve seen oil magnates, real estate moguls, shippers and robber barons at the top of the money heap, but Buffett is the first person to get there just by picking stocks.

While we’ve all been puttering around with our own portfolios, buying what Mario Gabelli likes, or last year’s laggards in the Dow, we could have been sitting on a few shares of Berkshire Hathaway and turned $1,000 into $1 million. That’s the return since 1969. I actually owned Berkshire for a stretch in the 1980s but sold it too soon. Buffett himself rarely sells too soon. A key element of his strategy is to buy companies at favorable prices and sit on them. It’s the sitting part that Robert Hagstrom says most of us overlook.

Hagstrom is a Philadelphia investment adviser and longtime fan of Buffett’s. While other Buffett buffs were waiting for their hero to write a book that explains how he does it, Hagstrom came out of nowhere as a replacement author. The publication last November of his book, The Warren Buffett Way, helped spark a sudden rise in the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway from $16,000 to a record $25,000 a share (this is no penny stock). Since Buffett owns 42% of Berkshire Hathaway, Hagstrom’s effort made Buffett $2 billion richer, at least temporarily. This is the biggest favor ever done to a subject by a writer, and Hagstrom has never even met Buffett.

True to his instincts, the investor friend I mentioned earlier naturally waited for Hagstrom’s readers to bid up Buffett’s stock to an extravagant level before buying his first share. Had he read Hagstrom’s book beforehand, he might have thought better of it because another of Buffett’s rules is that you should pay sensible prices for things.

Hagstrom’s detailed description of Buffett’s modus operandi has caused a bit of confusion among Buffett followers. Inspired by the book, a number cruncher at Standard & Poor’s took all the attributes of a Buffett-type investment (consistent profitability, high return on equity, etc.) and programmed a computer to spit out the names of the companies that qualified. Thirty did, but only two of those stocks are actually found in Buffett’s portfolio at Berkshire Hathaway. As the Standard & Poor’s computer sees it, most of Buffett’s biggest holdings, with the exception of U.S. Tobacco and Coca-Cola, shouldn’t be there. This poses a problem: If you want to invest like Buffett, do you buy the stocks he owns–or the stocks a computer says he ought to own?

what makes Buffett a great investor is that he owns only a few stocks and sticks with them. Eighty percent of the gains in Berkshire Hathaway have come from just six issues. Year after year he holds them, long after the rest of us would have got tired of seeing them on a brokerage statement

I recently met up with Hagstrom in New York. He says we could argue all day about how Buffett picks stocks and what a computer thinks about it. A lot of good investors own good stocks, but what makes Buffett a great investor is that he owns only a few stocks and sticks with them. Eighty percent of the gains in Berkshire Hathaway have come from just six issues. Year after year he holds them, long after the rest of us would have got tired of seeing them on a brokerage statement. The last time Buffett disposed of a major position was 1986, when he dumped Handy & Harman, a precious-metals outfit, and Lear Siegler, an auto-parts manufacturer. Two years ago, he sold a third of his position in Capital Cities/ABC, and has since admitted that he made a mistake there.

Buying and holding wouldn’t have worked with the clinkers in my portfolio, but Buffett doesn’t have too many clinkers, except perhaps for USAir (another mistake he recently acknowledged). Neither, however, has he ever invested in the winningest stocks in the country. None of his holdings made the list of the top 50 performers over the past 20 years. So if he’s the winningest investor without having owned the winningest stocks, something other than stock picking must have helped him.

Hagstrom has recently joined forces with Joan Lamm-Tennant, a professor of finance at Villanova, to test whether buying and holding make any difference on portfolios that are randomly selected by Villanova’s computers. They tracked the performance of 3,000 fictional portfolios–some containing as few as 10 stocks, others as many as 150, going back 10 years. The upshot is that portfolios with the fewest stocks and the lowest turnover outperform portfolios with more stocks and a higher turnover. And that’s without taking brokerage fees and taxes into account.

In a second test, they took randomly selected portfolios of 10 stocks each and compared results with the average mutual fund over a 10-year stretch. Apparently, the random portfolios do just as well as the funds. Perhaps this explains why funds can’t come close to matching Buffett’s record. Berkshire Hathaway resembles a fund, but since it isn’t one, Buffett has the freedom to be boring.

Hagstrom’s next step is to launch a mutual fund, Focus Trust, based on Buffett’s principles. It’s in registration and scheduled to be launched in April. The plan is to pick a few stocks that Buffett might want to own (though probably not the ones he does own) and hold onto them. The management fee will be very low, because with that strategy, the managers won’t have much to do.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/city-news/2009/11/10/warren-buffett-still-investing-smart-115875-21809804/ :

Billionaire Warren Buffett has again shown he’s one of the world’s smartest investor.

Profits at his investment firm, Berkshire Hathaway, almost tripled to £1.9billion in the three months to September. The US-based venture has made a killing on Coca-Cola and investment bank Goldman Sachs shares. Last week Buffett took control  of a US railroad in his biggest deal to date. The 79-year-old vies with Microsoft’s Bill Gates for the title of  the world’s richest man.

Buffett’s Five Tips for Individual Investors
Reflect on your goals

By: Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett is the world’s most successful investor and a self-made billionaire. In 2005, Buffett was ranked the world’s second richest man with a personal net worth of $43 billion.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
– Warren Buffet

stocks as parts of business … If I am happy owning the stock under that circumstance, I am happy with the business.

“Look at stocks as parts of business. Ask yourself, ‘How would I feel if the Stock Exchange was closing tomorrow for the next three years?’ If I am happy owning the stock under that circumstance, I am happy with the business. That frame of mind is important to investing.”

The market is there to serve you … It is not telling you whether you are right or wrong

“The market is there to serve you and not to instruct you. It is not telling you whether you are right or wrong. The business results will determine that.”

go into things where you could be wrong to some extent and come out OK

“You can’t precisely know what a stock is worth, so leave yourself a margin of safety. Only go into things where you could be wrong to some extent and come out OK.”

NGUTANG ADALAH CARA TERBAIK UNTUK BANGKRUT …Borrowed money is the most common way that smart guys go broke

“Borrowed money is the most common way that smart guys go broke.”

People shouldn’t get emotionally involved with their stocks

“The stock doesn’t know you own it. You have feelings about it, but it has no feelings about you. The stock doesn’t know what you paid. People shouldn’t get emotionally involved with their stocks.”

Warren Buffett is most likely the best investor of modern times. He will certainly go down as one of the top two or three influences. Yet, he goes about investing in ways that are often contradictory to the market’s moods.  Here are some of his quotes:

If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.

Buffett’s philosophy has not changed, nor his personality or attitude in life. Despite being one of the richest men in the world, he still lives in his small home in Omaha, Nebraska that he bought decades ago.

Investing Strategies & Personalities

Buffet’s investing approach is certainly much different than those of TV shows like “Fast Money” and hosts like Jim Cramer who focus on the next “trade.” I’m not talking down on these guys; I used to watch “Fast Money” religiously until Dylan Ratigan left. Jim Cramer, for all of his antics, generally calls a pretty good game. It’s just if I want a “Booyah,” I’ll turn on ESPN.

Trading Stocks

There are two polarizing styles of playing the stock market here. The CNBCs, Motley Fools, & Jim Cramer’s of the world play for the “trade.” This is a much more labor intensive, and depending on where you hold your account, expensive technique. They use different techniques, analysis and thought processes when making decisions on a particular stock.

On the shows or websites, you will hear or read about option movements, volatility, swaps and spreads among many other things. These are all extremely important for the trader using these techniques to help him or her make a decision.

Investing in Companies

Warren Buffett is not worrying about these things. He is not worried about a dip in a company like Apple (AAPL) because of the news of a price drop on the iPhone. His analysis no less complicated, but a bit more fundamental. To Warren Buffett, it’s all about the balance sheet. He does not look for a good stock. He looks for good companies; good businesses. As in the quote above, he buys on the value of the company. If the company is as good as he thinks it is, he will be rewarded in time with a rise in the stock price.

Warren Buffett is an investor, not a trader. He focuses on the long term and reaps the rewards of his patience. He’s not always right. Last year was a good example of that. He was considerably “early” in his decision to start buying back in. That being said, I’d bet my vintage Welch’s jelly jar glasses that a decade from now, we will hear about the amazing moves he made when everybody else was afraid to go back in the water.

So why am I writing this? For a little perspective, I guess. Young men and women spend years going to the best schools, learning the intricate details of trading techniques and analysis and they race up and down the investment return “roller coaster.” Sometimes you just need to go back to the basics. Is it a strong business? Does it have a healthy balance sheet?

Intelligent Investors

Warren Buffett’s mentor, Benjamin Graham, wrote a book called the Intelligent Investor in 1949; Buffett described the book as “by far the best book on investing ever written”.  Buffett and Jason Zweig collaborated on an updated version of the book containing modern day commentary, relating the concepts to current events in the financial markets.  If you want to learn more about Buffett’s principles of investing, check out the Intelligent Investor.
… baca lage soal metode WB
Warren Buffett’s Value Investing Principle

Mon, 10/20/2008 – 15:27

Seorang sahabat mengirimkan artikel berikut dalam bahasa Inggris dan menurut saya artikel ini sangat menarik untuk disimak. Agar semua pembaca bisa ikut menikmati, berikut saya sampaikan saduran Bahasa Indonesianya. Semoga bermanfaat.

Pasar finansial dunia sedang dilanda krisis, baik di AS maupun seluruh dunia. Krisis ini pun telah merambah perekonomian secara umum dan menunjukkan gejala yang makin tidak menggembirakan. Dalam jangka pendek, angka pengangguran akan meningkat, kegiatan usaha akan menurun atau bahkan macet dan topik utama pemberitaan di media massa akan terus terdengar menakutkan.

Jadi… saya telah membeli saham-saham emiten AS selama periode ini. Saya berbicara tentang rekening pribadi saya, yang selama ini hanya terdiri atas obligasi pemerintah AS. Ini mengesampingkan kepemilikan saya di Berkshire Hathaway holdings, yang seluruhnya sudah didedikasikan untuk kegiatan amal dan kemanusiaan. Apabila harga-harga saham masih atraktif, maka komposisi kekayaan saya di luar Berkshire akan segera beralih menjadi 100% saham.

Mengapa demikian?

Saya berpegang pada satu prinsip sederhana dalam melakukan pembelian saham: jadilah takut saat yang lain sedang tamak dan jadilah tamak saat yang lain takut. Dan pastinya, ketakutan saat ini sedang merajalela, mencekam bahkan investor yang sudah canggih sekalipun. Memang investor berhak mengkhawatirkan perusahaan yang utangnya besar (highly-leveraged) atau bisnis yang memliki daya saing yang lemah. Tetapi ketakutan atas kejayaan perusahaan-perusahaan yang baik dalam jangka panjang adalah hal yang tidak masuk akal. Perusahaan-perusahaan ini memang akan mengalami penurunan laba, seperti biasa mereka alami di masa krisis, tetapi mereka akan mampu menciptakan rekor laba baru dalam 5, 10 atau 20 tahun dari sekarang.

Perkenankan saya menjelaskan satu hal: saya TIDAK BISA memprediksi pergerakan pasar saham dalam jangka pendek. Saya sama sekali tidak punya ide apakah harga-harga saham akan menjadi lebih tinggi atau lebih rendah dalam sebulan atau setahun dari sekarang. Akan tetapi, yang mungkin terjadi adalah, pasar akan bergerak naik, bahkan mungkin secara signifikan, jauh sebelum sentiment atau perekonomian berbalik arah menuju perbaikan. Jadi bila anda menunggu sampai burung Robin keluar, musim semi sudah akan berlalu.

Ada sebuah fakta sejarah: pada masa the Great Depression, indeks Dow Jones mencapai angka terendahnya, 41, pada tanggal 8 Juli 1932. Keadaan ekonomi, di lain pihak, terus memburuk sampai Franklin D. Roosevelt diangkat menjadi presiden AS pada Maret 1933 – pada saat itu kemudian pasar telah naik 30%. Begitu juga pada masa awal Perang Dunia Kedua, di saat keadaan memburuk bagi AS akibat perkembangan situasi di Eropa and Asia Pasifik. Pasar mencapai titik terendahnya di bulan April 1942, jauh sebelum tentara sekutu tiba.

Kemudian sekali lagi di awal 1980-an, waktu untuk membeli saham adalah saat inflasi membumbung dan perekonomian ambruk. Singkatnya, berita buruk adalah sahabat karib seorang investor karena itu memungkinkan investor membeli bagian dari masa depan AS dengan harga yang sudah terdiskon.

Dalam jangka panjang, berita tentang pasar saham akan menjadi baik. Selama abad ke-20, AS telah mengalami dua perang dunia serta berbagai konflik militer yang traumatic dan memakan biaya tinggil the Great Depression; lusinan resesi dan panic di pasar financial; gejolak harga minyak (oil shocks); wabah flu; dan pengunduran diri seorang presiden melalui pemakzulan (impeachment). Namun indeks Dow Jones tumbuh dari 66 ke 11.497!

Anda mungkin berpikir bahwa mustahil bagi seorang investor untuk merugi di abad yang penuh dengan keuntungan luar biasa. Tapi beberapa investor ternyata mengalaminya dan mereka adalah investor yang membeli saham saat mereka merasa nyaman melakukannya lalu kemudian menjual saat topik utama berita membuat mereka pusing kepala.

Saat ini mereka yang memegang kas merasa nyaman. Tapi seharusnya mereka tidak karena mereka memilih asset jangka panjang yang buruk, asset yang bisa dikatakan tidak menghasilkan apa-apa dan pastinya akan terdepresiasi nilainya. Tentunya segala daya upaya pemerintah untuk mengatasi krisis mungkin malah menaikkan inflasi sehingga mempercepat penurunan nilai riil dari kas.

Saham tentunya akan memberikan imbal hasil yang melebihi imbal hasil kas selama 10 tahun ke depan, dan mungkin malah jauh melebihi.Iinvestor yang terus berpegang pada kas pada dasarnya bertaruh bahwa mereka bisa beralih dari kas secara efisien di kemudian hari. Selama menunggu rasa nyaman kembali seiring dengan munculnya berita-berita baik, mereka mengacuhkan nasihat Wayne Gretzky: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.” (Saya berselancar menuju tempat di mana setan akan pergi, bukan ke mana ia pernah berada).

Saya tidak mau mengutarakan pendapat tentang pasar modal, and sekali lagi saya tekankan bahwa saya tidak punya ide tentang kondisi pasar saham dalam jangka pendek. Akan tetapi, saya akan mengikuti langkah restoran yang membuka usaha di sebuah gedung bank yang kosong: “Put your mouth where your money was.” (“Letakkan mulutmu di mana uang berada.”)

Saat ini baik uang maupun mulut saya mengatakan saham.

Warren E. Buffett adalah chief executive Berkshire Hathaway, sebuah perusahaan holding yang berinvestasi di berbagai bidang usaha.

The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United
States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices
keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now
widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak
competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks
will be higher or lower a month – or a year – from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so,
well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until
Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned.

Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an
investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate
the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless,
I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.”

Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.
… KEDEWASAAN INVESTOR HARUS DIBANGUN, HARUS BERLANGSUNG DALAM JANGKA PANJANG, DIMULAI SEJAK USIA KANAK-KANAK supaya ga jadi investor kekanak-kanakan :  http://sahambbri.wordpress.com/2010/01/02/awal-kedewasaan-manusia-investor-020110/

… khusus untuk 2010, apa yang bisa dilakukan SEGERA : Kamis, 24/12/2009 09:20 WIB

2010 dan harapan Anda!

oleh : Anthony Dio Martin

Pada penghujung tahun ini, saya ingin berbagi kisah tentang pengharapan kepada Anda. Ada seorang petani asal Colombia bernama Gabriel yang bermimpi untuk memiliki sebuah peternakan besar.

Mimpi itu semakin membara tatkala dia melihat berhektare-hektare tanah kosong luas membentang. Saat itu, Gabriel hanyalah seorang petani miskin dengan sepetak tanah pertanian kecil dan seekor sapi.

Di suatu malam, ia pun bercerita pada ayahnya mengenai keinginannya itu, dan ayahnya mendorongnya untuk mencari pemilik tanah itu. Saat mendengar saran ayahnya, Gabriel terkejut dan berkata, “Tapi aku tidak punya uang sebanyak itu untuk membeli tanah itu ayah…” Sekali lagi ayahnya mendorong untuk menemui pemilik tanah itu, “Tapi kan tidak ada salahnya menemui dia dan ngobrol dulu…”

Singkat cerita, di luar dugaan. Ternyata sang pemilik tanah bersedia membantu dan meringankan Gabriel dengan cara memperbolehkan mencicil sesuai dengan keadaan keuangan Gabriel.

Beberapa tahun kemudian pertanian itu berkembang luar biasa dan menjadi salah satu pertanian terbesar di daerah itu. Bahkan, Gabriel memiliki ratusan sapi, kebun binatang kecil, taman berkuda, dan berbagai fasilitas hiburan keluarga lainnya. Dan waktu pun terus berlalu. Suatu ketika, istri Gabriel yang bernama Sarah, tiba-tiba berkata kepadanya, “Sayang, aku ingin membangun sapi terbesar di dunia…”

Ketika mereka berkonsultasi dan membuat rancangan bangunan “sapi” itu, mereka disodori sejumlah anggaran yang angkanya sangat besar sekali. Mereka sempat berpikir, “Mana ada bank yang mau meminjamkan uang sebesar ini untuk membangun seekor sapi?”

Namun, sekali lagi mereka mencoba melangkah dan mengajukan proposal. Entah bagaimana proses yang terjadi, pada akhirnya manajer bank tersebut bersedia memberikan pinjaman dan mempercayai rencana yang mereka ajukan.

Kini, di tengah pertanian dan peternakan mereka berdirilah ‘seekor sapi’ setinggi 9 meter dan sepanjang 16 meter. Dan itu menjadi pusat atraksi turis yang luar biasa. Semua orang yang masuk ke dalam “sapi” itu akan diperlihatkan proses berubahnya rumput yang dimakan sapi hingga menjadi susu.

Kini, sapi raksasa itu menjadi sebuah wisata pendidikan yang menarik banyak turis dan menjadikan daerah itu sebagai salah satu daerah favorit di Colombia.

Berani bermimpi

Sungguh sebuah cerita sederhana yang menggugah hati bukan? Apakah yang menggerakkan Gabriel dan istrinya untuk memiliki keberanian dan bertindak? Harapan! Mereka memiliki harapan bahwa mimpi mereka bisa terwujud.

Segala pencapaian besar selalu diawali dengan sebuah letupan kecil yang bernama pengharapan. Orang yang kehilangan harapan seperti orang yang ‘mati’, mereka tidak akan punya keberanian, kehilangan kekuatannya, dan memilih untuk berhenti.

Kita masih ingat pada Desember 5 tahun yang lalu, ketika tsunami memorak-porandakan Aceh. Beberapa orang sekarang ini sudah membangun kehidupannya kembali dan mulai bergerak maju.

Namun, banyak orang yang putus asa dan musnah pengharapannya. Mereka tidak mampu membangun kehidupannya dan tidak melakukan usaha apa pun.

Mengapa hanya sedikit orang yang mampu bertahan dan membangun kehidupannya kembali? Karena memang hanya sedikit orang yang bisa memelihara pengharapan dalam hidupnya.

Dalam hitungan hari, kita akan meninggalkan 2009. Sebuah lembaran baru akan kita buka. Sebuah musim kehidupan yang baru akan kita masuki.

Pertanyaannya adalah, apakah Anda masih memiliki pengharapan dengan kehidupan Anda di tahun yang akan datang? Apakah Anda masih percaya bahwa 2010 akan menjadi tahun keemasan Anda? Apakah masih ada sinar keyakinan bahwa kehidupan Anda akan menjadi lebih baik pada tahun mendatang?

Melalui artikel singkat ini, saya ingin merangkum beberapa pemikiran sederhana untuk senantiasa membangkitkan kembali harapan Anda pada tahun mendatang.

Bangun harapan dengan emosi positif yang besar. Kisah Gabriel di atas mengingatkan kita bahwa segala sesuatu dimulai dari mimpi-mimpi atau visi yang awalnya kelihatan mustahil.
Saat itu, berbagai keraguan serta ketidakpastian menyelimuti Anda. Anda merasa ‘excited’ sekaligus khawatir apakah mimpi tersebut dapat diwujudkan. Disinilah permainan emosi sering kali menjadi kuncinya.

Itulah sebabnya dalam berbagai pelatihan kecerdasan emosi yang kami adakan, sangat ditekankan bahwa “…pertarungan emosi yang positif dan negatif, akan sangat menentukan apakah seseorang menjadi suksesatau gagal”.

Pada saat emosi negatif seperti rasa takut, jauh lebih besar daripada emosi positif seperti kebahagiaan jika impiannya bisa terwujud, maka seseorang akan mundur.

Bagikan mimpimu kepada yang bisa mendukungmu. Untungnya, langkah Gabriel selanjutnya, bukannya mengubur mimpinya ataupun ‘membunuh’ mimpinya sendiri.
Dia pun membagikan mimpinya kepada ayahnya yang ternyata memberikan dukungan positif. Hingga akhirnya, terwujudlah impian mempunyai pertanian yang besar. Di sinilah peran orang lain menjadi begitu sangat penting.

Bayangkan, jika ayahnya tidak mendukung bahkan menjatuhkan? Bisa jadi, Gabriel tidak akan berani berbicara kepada pemilik tanah pertanian tersebut, yang akhirnya membuatnya tetap hidup dengan sepetak tanah pertanian kecilnya.

Jadi, pembelajarannya adalah mendapatkan dukungan dan ‘energi positif’ dari orang-orang yang bisa memberi support positif atas mimpimu.

Realisasikan sesuatu. Saya mempunyai pepatah dari pengalaman sendiri bahwa, “Sebongkah batu yang diletakkan, jauh lebih berharga daripada sebuah bangunan yang masih dalam impian”.
Untuk memulai sesuatu mimpi, mulailah take action (lakukan sesuatu). Lihatlah, apa yang Anda capai dan nikmati sekarang adalah apa yang Anda lakukan kemarin. Dan, apa yang akan Anda nikmati pada masa depan, adalah apa yang Anda lakukan hari ini.

Oleh karena itu, tergeraklah untuk mulai melakukan sesuatu. Kisah Gabriel di atas, menunjukkan suatu elemen sukses yang penting yakni mulai melakukan sesuatu tindakan.

Berani wujudkan yang lebih tinggi. Setelah mimpi Anda tercapai, janganlah berhenti. Pikirkanlah apa yang masih bisa diraih. Ingat, selalu ada langit yang lebih tinggi.
Selalu ada gunung kesuksesan lebih tinggi yang bisa Anda daki. Cobalah, tantang dan paksa diri Anda untuk terus melangkah. Hindari penyakit 3C (Compliment, Complacent serta Comfort Zone) yang seringkali membuat orang terlalu berpuas diri dan lantas berhenti.

Lihatlah semangat Gabriel yang masih mau mewujudkan mimpi gila istrinya untuk memiliki sapi terbesar.

Semoga kisah Gabriel dengan semua pembelajarannya, membuat kita tetap optimis dan berani menghadapi tantangan pada 2010. Apa pun wujudnya, katakan, “Saya optimistis!”!

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