1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

beli saat maseh gosip, jual sesudah tinggi dan pas faktanya: 240110 24 Januari 2010

Filed under: Teknik Maen Saham — bumi2009fans @ 10:49 pm

FOOL’S SCHOOL DAILY Q&A
Don’t Buy on the Rumor
JANGAN BELI KARENA GOSIP
Q: What is the rationale (if any) behind the phrase, “Buy the rumor, sell the news”? — H.Y., Los Angeles
Apa dasar di balik pepatah ” BELI SAAT ADA GOSIP, JUAL SAAT BERITANYA DISIARKAN” ….
A: “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” Ah, a tried-and-true phrase that makes its utterer sound oh-so-intelligent. Ultimately, we think that buy-and-hold investors aren’t going to be too concerned with what the rationale behind the phrase is (it plays a bigger role in a short-term trader’s stock moves), but let’s take a quick crack at explaining it.
… pepatah tersebut lebe diperuntukkan para Trader jangka pendek … buat investor cara cerdas, ga usa peduliin
Oftentimes a rumor will circulate around a stock or a company. The rumor might be that the company is going to be acquired by a competitor, or that an exciting new cure for the common hangover is about to be released. When a company is rumored to be acquired, those who are acting on the rumor can mentally fill in more or less any acquisition price that they like — until an announcement turns the rumor to fact. Should an actual acquisition ever be announced, the facts rarely end up being as attractive as the upper limits of the rumor. Because all the best possibilities have already been “priced into” the stock before the real news breaks, the actual announcement tends to reveal the limits to the good news, rather than just the positives that are at the center of any rumor.
… sering gosip suatu saham beredar … lalu gosip tersebut tentang perusahaan pesaing mengakuisisi saham perusahaan tersebut … atawa ada gosip berita bagus perusahaan itu … bila ada gosip soal akuisisi, maka faktor harga akuisisi menjadi faktor utama pertimbangan investor … pertimbangan investor itu baru akan lenyap saat fakta harga sebenarnya diberitakan … pada saat fakta akuisisi sudah diberitakan, maka biasanya harga saham sudah berada di bawah batas atas harga saat maseh berupa gosip … karena biasanya semua pertimbangan faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap harga saham sudah berdampak pada harga saham sebelum fakta harga akuisisi diberitakan …

Taking a real world example from the recent past, consider what happened last year to Pixar Animation, the company that has produced the hit films Toy Story and A Bug’s Life. Prior to the 1998 Thanksgiving release of A Bug’s Life, rumor was spreading around about the potential for the film. Upon this speculation, Pixar’s stock rose from a low of $20 a share at the beginning of 1998 to $53 right before the film opened. When A Bug’s Life did open, it broke all the box-office records for an animated film opening on Thanksgiving weekend. And yet the stock quickly lost about 40 percent of its value over the next month and is still substantially below its November 1998 price.
… contoh pada kasus film A Bug’s Life yang diproduksi oleh Pixar Animation … sebelum film beredar, maka gosip dan analisis kedahsyatan film tersebut sudah beredar luas, sehingga harga saham Pixar melejit dari $20 ke $53 yaitu harga saham sehari sebelum film dimainkan … benar saja film itu meraih Box Office, tapi harga saham Pixar ambruk 40%, bahkan jauh di bawah harga terendahnya pada sesaat sebelum bullish trend terjadi …

This was a classic “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” scenario. Although A Bug’s Life was a very successful film, ultimately grossing more than $350 million worldwide, it was not nearly as big as the rumors would have had it being. To sustain the price that the rumors and speculation had created, A Bug’s Life would have to have been as big as Disney’s The Lion King, the most successful animated release of all time.

While A Bug’s Life was as big a success as an investor could rationally have hoped for, it wasn’t as big as the rumors — because few things ever live up to those types of hopes. When a rumor becomes “news” and there are real numbers and real facts attached to it, a lot of short-term investors will find that a good time to sell, and over the short term that will affect the price of a stock.
… salah satu KETIDAKPASTIAN saat kondisi bullish / tren naek terjadi adalah KEPASTIAN trader jangka pendek segera merealisasikan LABA jangka pendeknya … jadi, mengikuti pepatah di atas, saat maseh gosip, harga saham maseh murah untuk dibeli, lalu saat fakta diberitakan harga saham pun cepat merosot, maka segera lah jual sahamnya …
Awan Hitam Bayangi Indeks Saham Lokal
Minggu, 24 Januari 2010 | 16:53 WIB

TEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta – Proposal Presiden Barrack Hussein Obama yang membatasi perdagangan berisiko terhadap bank-bank besar di Amerika Serikat, kembali merontokkan saham di bursa New York. Rontoknya saham-saham di Amerika dikhawatirkan merembet ke bursa regional, termasuk indeks dalam negeri.

Pada perdagangan akhir pekan kemarin, indeks Dow Jones kembali terpangkas 216,9 poin atau 2,09 persen ke level 10.172,98. Secara akumulasit, selama sepekan indeks Dow Jones sudah anjlok 436,67 poin atau 4,12 persen.

Analis dari PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, Alfiansyah, mengemukakan rontoknya saham Wall Street dalam tiga hari beruntun pasti akan membebani pergerakan bursa regional di awal pekan, termasuk bursa domestik. “Terpangkasnya harga minyak ke US$ 74,54 per barel, serta nilai tukar rupiah yang melemah menjadi ganjalan bagi bursa di awal pekan,” tuturnya.

Indeks harga saham domestik pada Senin (25/1) akan bergerak di kisaran antara 2.580 hingga 2.650. Namun, menurut Alfiansyah, walaupun bursa akan mengalami tekanan di sesi awal, tapi sebagian investor juga melakukan antisipasi beli saat harga saham sudah turun cukup dalam. Sehingga bisa saja terjadi potensi rebound minor. ”Karena secara fundamental, dan prospek ekonomi kita ditahun ini masih cukup bagus, “ katanya.

Sebelumnya, ekonomi Cina yang melaju kencang 8,7 persen pada 2009 memunculkan kekhawatiran bahwa pemerintah Cina akan mengetatkan likuiditas pasar guna mengeram inflasi juga memicu kejatuhan bursa global. Saham-saham pertambangan, terutama sektor energi, akan mengalami pukulan seiring jatuhnya harga minyak.

Sepanjang pekan lalu, indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia turun 36,75 poin atau 1,39 ke level 2.610,34 dibandingkan posisi pada pekan sebelumnya di level 2.647,09.

VIVA B. KUSNANDAR

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