Jumat, 05/02/2010 07:30 WIB
IHSG Bakal Terseret Arus Pelemahan
Nurul Qomariyah – detikFinance
Jakarta – Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) kemarin ditutup melemah di tengah bursa-bursa regional yang juga sedang dilanda kelesuan. IHSG gagal bertahan di level 2.600.
Pada perdagangan Kamis (4/2/2010), IHSG ditutup turun 11,329 poin (0,43%) ke level 2.593,220. Indeks LQ 45 juga turun 2,957 poin (0,58%) ke level 505,179.
Sentimen negatif kembali menaungi perdagangan saham Jumat (5/2/2010) ini. Merosotnya bursa-bursa utama dunia akan menyeret IHSG ke titik terendahnya lagi. Investor memilih untuk melepas portofolio sahamnya dalam kondisi pasar finansial yang sedang diliputi ketidakpastian.
Bursa Wall Street kemarin merosot tajam, dengan indeks Dow Jones sempat mencicipi level di bawah 10.000. Pemicu rontoknya saham-saham adalah memuncaknya kekhawatiran seputar masalah utang di Eropa plus data klaim pengangguran yang meningkat ke level yang tidak diprediksi sebelumnya.
Pada perdagangan Kamis (4/2/2010) indeks Dow Jones ditutup melemah 268,37 poin (2,61%) ke level 10.002,18. Indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 juga merosot 34,17 poin (3,11%) ke level 1.063,11 dan Nasdaq melemah 65,48 poin (2,99%) ke level 2.125,43.
Bursa Tokyo pun langsung ikut merosot tajam, dengan indeks Nikkei-225 dibuka anjlok 190,99 poin (1,84%) ke level 10.164,99.
Berikut rekomendasi saham untuk hari ini:
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada Kamis (04/02/2010) bergerak mix, dengan hasil penutupan minus 11 poin. Hal ini dipicu oleh menurunnya saham-saham infrastruktur dan perbankan. Investor terlihat masih ragu-ragu untuk kembali masuk ke dalam bursa. Kendati demikian, pihak asing masih melakukan transaksi beli bersih sebesar Rp131 miliar. Saham-saham yang diperkirakan masih berpeluang menguat antara lain GGRM, ADRO, INDF, dan LSIP. Untuk perdagangan esok, IHSG masih bergerak mix dengan volume transaksi yang tidak terlalu besar. Range pergerakan IHSG masih berada di kisaran 2.560 – 2.620.
Melemahnya bursa regional menjadi sandungan bagi IHSG untuk menguat sehingga gagal memanfaatkan momentum reversal sebelumnya. Indeks akhirnya turun 11 poin ke level 2.593 dipicu tekanan terhadap saham blue-chip seperti TLKM, BBCA, BMRI, dan BUMI. Pelaku pasar masih wait & see terlihat nilai transaksi yang tipis. Pada kondisi liquiditas yang tipis maka sebaiknya menerapkan buy on weakness/selective buying sambil melihat trend pasar global. Indeks hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di level 2.570-2.610.
Tekanan Jual, IHSG Bakal Lemah Lagi
Jum’at, 5 Februari 2010 – 07:26 wib
JAKARTA – Pasar masih menunggu laporan keuangan kuartal IV-2009 dari emiten-emiten besar, akibatnya indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) diproyeksikan masih akan melambat karena tekanan jual pada perdagangan akhir pekan ini.
“Indeks nampaknya masih akan sedikit melemah,” kata Kepala Riset Bhakti Securities Edwin Sebayang kepada okezone, di Jakarta, Jumat (5/2/2010).
Walau demikian, dia menuturkan, jika dua laporan keuangan emiten besar, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) dan PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) dinilai sangat memuaskan dan memberikan sentimen positif. Dukungan terhadap indeks ini juga muncul karena rupiah yang telah stabil.
Hanya saja, pasar secara psikologis masih merasa belum yakin dan nampaknya masih menunggu laporan keuangan emiten lainnya. Selain itu, pasar juga akan sangat terpengaruh atas hasil keputusan atas tingkat suku bunga yang ditetapkan European Chemicals Bureau (ECB) dan Bank of England (BoE) serta data tenaga kerja yang rencananya dirilis pada hari ini.
“Pasar masih akan mengantisipasi hal tersebut,” jelasnya.
BI rate yang sedianya telah diputuskan tidak berubah oleh BI juga nampaknya tidak akan mempengaruhi indeks pada hari ini. “Suku bunga baru ada Possibility kenaikan pada kuartal II-2010,” imbuhnya.
Menurut Edwin, indeks akan berada pada kisaran support resistance di level 2.582-2.620. Dengan pilihan saham antara lain, PT International Nickel Coprporation Tbk (INCO), PT bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA), PT Astra Insternasional Tbk (ASII) dan PT United Tractor Tbk (UNTR).
Sementara itu, analisa dari Trimegah Securities mengungkapkan IHSG masih rawan atas tekanan jual. “Sentimen negatif dari regional dan stochastic yang memiliki kecenderungan untuk deadcross serta IHSG yang di bawah resisten tren naik membuat IHSG rawan tekanan jual,” demikian dalam analisa hariannya.
Trimegah memproyeksikan, indeks saham akan berada pada support resistance di kisaran 2.575-2.625.
Sebelumnya,IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis (4/2/2010), ditutup melemah 11,33 poin atau 0,04 persen ke posisi 2.593,22. Jakarta Islamic Indeks (JII) ditutup melemah 2,5 poin ke posisi 426,22 dan LQ45 turun 2,96 poin ke posisi 505,18.
Volume perdagangan terpantau sebanyak 4,779 miliar lembar saham senilai Rp2,69 triliun. Saham-saham yang ditutup menguat terpantau sebanyak 75 jenis saham, melemah 101 jenis saham, dan 76 jenis saham.(Widi Nugroho/RCTI/rhs)
KRISIS FINANSIAL DI EUROZONE bener2 bikin KEPANIKAN dan KECEMASAN BARU DI investasi berisiko TINGGI … LAGE2 UTANG JADI ALASAN KRISFINALO baru
Stocks Plunge, Euro Drops, Debt Risk Up on U.S. Jobs, Euro Debt
By Patrick Chu and James Poole
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks plunged, following the MSCI World Index’s biggest slump in nine months, the euro fell and bond default risk soared after an unexpected increase in U.S. jobless claims and on concern over European sovereign debt.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.4 percent to 114.87 at 12:10 p.m. in Tokyo, the lowest level in two months, and the euro fell as much as 0.4 percent against the dollar to the lowest level since May. The cost of protecting Australian corporate debt jumped the most in almost six months and emerging market equity funds had their biggest outflow in 24 weeks.
Investors are fleeing risk as initial applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly increased to 480,000 last week and companies from MasterCard Inc. to Monster Worldwide Inc. reported earnings that trailed analyst estimates. Portugal and Greece led a surge in the cost of insuring against losses on sovereign debt to a record on concern that emerging market countries will struggle to curb budget deficits.
The drop in Asia stocks is “very much linked to paring back risks and locking in profits,” said Michael Auyeung, who manages about $500 million as chief investment officer at Pacific Mutual Fund Bhd. in Malaysia. “The outperformance of these higher beta markets makes them very susceptible, the catalyst being China’s perceived tightening.”
More than 30 stocks dropped for each one that advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 2.8 percent to 10,062.65 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slumped 2.7 percent even as the nation’s central bank raised its economic forecast. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent. The U.S. benchmark sank 3.1 percent yesterday in New York, the most since April.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 4 percent in Sydney as commodity prices dropped. Canon Inc., which gets 78 percent of its sales from overseas, slipped 3.4 percent in Tokyo after the yen gained against the dollar and the euro. Westpac Banking Corp. dropped 2.8 percent.
The Markit iTraxx Australia index jumped 11 basis points to 107 basis points, according to prices from Westpac Banking Corp. That’s the biggest increase since Aug. 17 and takes the index to its highest since Oct. 9, according to prices from CMA DataVision in New York.
“The rise is on the back of some sovereign concerns that caused weakness in other markets last night,” said Evan McSweeney, credit trader at Westpac. “It just seems like the markets are spooked.”
Rising Debt Risk
The gains follow jumps by benchmark gauges of corporate credit risk in North America and Europe on growing concern that governments will fail to close budget gaps. Debt strains in Greece, Portugal and Spain are spreading into markets for corporate debt as investors weigh the potential impact on all asset values if a government funding crisis erupts.
The euro sank to the lowest level in more than eight months against the dollar and headed for a fourth-straight weekly drop against the greenback and yen. The European currency dropped to $1.3670, the lowest level since May 20, before trading at $1.37 at 11:56 a.m. in Tokyo compared with $1.3723 in New York.
“Anxiety about Europe is heightening as deficit problems are starting to look contagious,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, manager of foreign-exchange margin trading at Ueda Harlow in Tokyo. “This is weighing heavily on prospects for the euro, causing buying of safe-haven currencies.”
Greece’s biggest union approved the second mass strike this month and tax collectors began a 48-hour walkout, showing that Prime Minister George Papandreou’s parliamentary majority may not be enough to implement his plan to cut the European Union’s largest deficit.
The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets sank 2.9 percent yesterday. Oil lost 5 percent, the biggest drop in six months, gold tumbled the most since 2008 and an index of six industrial metals lost 2.8 percent as dollar gains curbed demand. Monster Worldwide Inc., which offers help-wanted advertisements on the Internet, plunged 12 percent in its biggest decline since 2007. MasterCard lost 10 percent.
Gold for immediate delivery and three-month delivery copper were little changed at $1,064.78 an ounce and $6,380 a ton today. Crude oil was up 0.2 percent at $73.26 a barrel.
Trichet Struggles to Convince Investors of Euro-Area Solidity
By Gabi Thesing
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is struggling to convince investors that the euro region shouldn’t be punished for Greece’s budget problems.
As the Greek government tries to control its record deficit and the country’s bonds slide, Trichet yesterday said the economy of the 16-nation euro area is solid and its budget shortfall will probably be smaller than those of the U.S. and Japan this year. The euro nevertheless fell more than half a cent against the dollar and Spanish and Portuguese stocks dropped on concern they are in a similar predicament to Greece.
Trichet “did not convince me,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. “Where does he think the Greek, Spanish and Portuguese economies will be three years from now? Their austerity measures will weigh on the euro area as a whole.”
Trichet has been forced to fend off questions about the survival of the euro as investors doubt Greece’s ability to cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit. As concern spreads to Spain and Portugal’s rising debt burdens, Trichet will try to stress the need for fiscal prudence without inflaming skepticism that it can be achieved.
“Something has to happen to turn credibility around,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, head of Market Economics at BNP Paribas in London. “The market’s just saying it’s not believable. It might have to get worse before it gets better.”
Spanish stocks dropped the most in 15 months yesterday and Portugal led declines in government bonds. The euro fell to $1.3728, its lowest level against the dollar since last May. It has dropped more than 9 percent since Nov. 25.
Greek bonds have tumbled in the past two months, pushing the yield on the country’s 10-year debt above 7 percent, the highest since 1999, the year the euro was introduced. The premium investors charge to hold Greek 10-year bonds over the benchmark German bund has widened to 356 basis points, about 10 times what it was two years ago.
The ECB yesterday left its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent and Trichet signaled the bank is in no rush to raise borrowing costs as the economy recovers gradually from its worst recession since World War II.
Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is not necessarily very well known” and its situation compares “very flatteringly with a number of other industrialized countries.”
The euro-area economy will grow 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011, according to the ECB’s December forecasts. It contracted 4 percent last year, the European Commission estimates.
“Trichet is still trying to persuade markets that they should be looking at the euro area as a whole, which does not look that bad, rather than at individual countries, some of which look extremely fragile,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit SpA in London.
Spain’s public debt will rise to 74 percent of GDP by 2011 from 54 percent last year, according to European Commission forecasts. Greece’s debt will increase to 135 percent of GDP from 113 percent, and Portugal’s will increase to 91 percent from 77 percent, the EU estimates.
Greece’s consolidation plans, which call for about 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) of spending cuts and revenue increases this year, are more ambitious than any budget reduction achieved by euro-region countries since the 1970s, according to ING Group.
Greece’s biggest union yesterday approved a second mass strike this month to protest the spending cuts and tax collectors began a 48-hour walkout, illustrating the difficulty Prime Minister George Papandreou faces in implementing his plan.
“We expect and we are confident that the Greek government will take all the decisions that will permit them to reach that goal,” Trichet said. Additional proposals announced by Greece this week to freeze public-sector wages and revamp the pension system “are steps in the right direction,” he said.
Europe fears rock global markets
By David Oakley in London, Tony Barber in Brussels, Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and Aline van Duyn in New York
Published: February 4 2010 20:38 | Last updated: February 5 2010 01:04
Growing fears over the health of Europe’s weakest economies and the outlook for US employment rocked global markets on Thursday, sparking sharp falls in risky assets ranging from equities to oil and gold.
The rout sent investors fleeing to the safety of US government debt, boosting the dollar to its highest level against the euro in more than eight months and sending US Treasury prices higher only days after the Obama administration forecast a $1,556bn deficit for 2010.
“The risk aversion trade is back on as the debt problems of the Europe are for the first time bringing down global markets,” said Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities in London.
The Portuguese, Spanish and Greek markets were among the hardest hit, as investor fears over their mounting public debt undermined confidence in their economies and the ability of their governments to fund burgeoning budget shortfalls.
Portugal’s stock markets fell 4.98 per cent, the biggest single day fall since November 2008. Spanish shares dropped 5.94 per cent to the lowest level since July, while Greek equities fell 3.89 per cent.
Attempts by Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, to boost confidence in eurozone public finances, by stressing that they compared “flatteringly” with those of other countries, failed to reassure investors.
In the US, the labour department reported that the number of workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly rose by 8,000 to 480,000 last week, casting doubt over the economy’s ability to create jobs.
The S&P 500 fell 3.11 per cent to 1,063.11 – its worst day since April 2009 – to its lowest level in three months. The FTSE 100 dropped 2.2 per cent and the FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 2.8 per cent. The price of a barrel of oil fell more than 5 per cent, the biggest daily drop in six months. In late New York trading, the benchmark crude oil contract was at $72.98. Gold was also hit, with a fall of 4.3 per cent to $1,062.
Dealers said investors were unwinding trades meant to profit from an economic recovery.
Tobias Levkovich, chief US equity strategist at Citigroup, said: “There has been selling by nervous investors of stocks and commodities, as they still have memories of the losses made in 2008 and want to make sure the gains from 2009 are not lost.”
The debt markets of Europe’s so-called peripheral economies also came under pressure as the yield spread between their bonds and Germany, the benchmark market, widened sharply.
Investors are also worried about the end of central bank emergency support measures that have propped up markets over the past year. With theUK on Thursday putting its quantitative easing programme on hold and the US soon to end its credit easing initiatives, investors fear the markets will come under renewed pressure.
Mr Trichet tried to soothe fears over European sovereign risk, saying the US deficit was expected to hit 10 per cent of gross domestic product this year – compared with about 6 per cent in the eurozone.
However, he kept up the pressure on individual eurozone countries, especially Greece, Spain and Portugal, saying clear plans for bringing public finances under control were of ”paramount importance”.
In Europe, Portugal was the focus of investors’ concerns about the eurozone as the parliament in Lisbon began voting on a bill on financial transfers to the regions. The bill risks undermining the government’s ability to cut its budget deficit, as promised, to 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2013 from 9.3 per cent last year.
In Greece, tax collectors started a 48-hour strike, raising fears of prolonged social unrest that could derail the government’s three-year deficit-cutting austerity programme.
Debt fears rattle market
By Alexandra Twin, senior writerFebruary 4, 2010: 5:59 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Fears about the fallout from a growing debt crisis in Europe dragged on Wall Street Thursday, sending the market to its lowest close in three months, with stocks hit across the board.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 268 points, or 2.6%, closing at 10,002.26, its lowest point since Nov. 4. The blue-chip briefly dipped below 10,000 late in the day, falling to that level for the first time since early November.
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The Dow’s decline marked the biggest one-day point loss since March 5 of last year.
The S&P 500 index (SPX) sank 34 points, or 3.1%, closing at the lowest point since Nov. 4. The one-day point loss was the biggest since April 20, 2009.
The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 65 points, or 3%, and closed at its lowest point point since Nov. 6. The one-day point loss was the largest since Feb. 10, 2009.
Debt woes propelled the dollar to a more than seven-month high versus the euro, which in turn pummeled dollar-traded commodities such as oil and gold. Treasury prices spiked, lowering yields, in a classic flight-to-safety move.
Meanwhile, the VIX (VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked almost 21%, suggesting investor nervousness was increasing.
“A surprise rise in weekly jobless claims ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report in combination with the sovereign debt issue has got people a bit spooked today,” said Mikel Keifer, vice president at Jurika Mills & Keifer.
Keifer said concerns about Greece’s debt problems have been in play for a while, but now Spain and Portugal are joining the fray.
Reports of labor unrest and political problems in the troubled nations are adding to the nervousness. “The worries are coming more to the forefront as market participants wonder if these countries will be able to refinance the debt,” Keifer said.
The stronger dollar sent oil and gold prices lower, and stocks such as Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) sliding. With energy one of the biggest sectors in the S&P 500, the selloff in the sector dragged on the broader market.
Weaker-than-expected labor market reports on both Wednesday and Thursday also played a role, creating jitters ahead of Friday’s January jobs report. Employers are expected to have added 15,000 jobs to their payrolls after cutting 85,000 in the previous month while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 10%.
If the payrolls number varies dramatically, it will likely move the market one way or another. But short of that, markets are likely to remain focused on the debt issues, said Joe Clark, market analyst at Financial Enhancement Group.
“The big issue at hand right now is that these European countries are facing debt crises and no one is sure what kind of impact that may have on the global economy,” Clark said.
Commodity prices slip on recovery doubts
Rally loses steam: Stocks rallied in the last 9 months of 2009 as investors dug back in after a brutal start to the year. The S&P 500 gained 65% between the 12-year lows hit on March 9 and year-end.
That advance continued up until around Jan. 19 of this year. But between that Jan. 19 high and the end of January, the S&P 500 lost just short of 7%.
“The market is in a pessimistic mood today, but this is also an extension of the correction we saw in late January,” said Matt King, chief investment officer at Bell Investment Advisors. “We saw a 7% decline, but we probably need to see double-digits (in percentage) before the selloff is over.”
Stock declines Thursday were broad based, with 29 of 30 Dow stocks falling. The exception was Cisco Systems, which reported strong quarterly results late Thursday.
Jobs: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 480,000 last week from a revised 472,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 455,000 new claims.
Continuing claims, the number of Americans receiving benefits for a week or more, rose to 4,602,000 from 4,600,000 the previous week. Economists expected 4,581,000.
The report was the lead-in to Friday’s big January jobs report from the government.
Beyond the monthly figures, investors will also take a look at the annual revision of U.S. payrolls. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to say that 824,000 more jobs were lost than previously thought during the April 2008 to May 2009 period, indicating the recession was even deeper than had been thought.
Factory orders: December factory orders rose 1% versus forecasts for a rise of 0.5%. Orders rose 1% in the previous month.
Quarterly results: After the close of trading Wednesday, tech leader Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected quarterly sales and earnings.
Toyota Motor (TM) reported improved earnings in its most recent quarter and also lifted its estimates for the fiscal year ending in March. But the results did not include the impact of the huge recall of millions of vehicles due to gas pedal problems. Toyota estimates that the global recall could cost it as much as $2 billion.
On Thursday, the government announced a formal probe into brake problems in the popular Prius hybrid. (Feds probing Prius brakes)
Tick, tock: Real estate’s time bomb
World markets: In overseas trading, Asian markets tumbled and European markets ended lower.
Commodities and the dollar: The dollar gained versus the euro on worries about sovereign debt in Greece, Spain and elsewhere in Europe. The dollar fell versus the Japanese yen.
The dollar’s strength against the euro dragged on oil and gold prices and individual stocks.
COMEX gold for April delivery fell $49 to settle at $1,062.40 an ounce.
U.S. light crude oil for March delivery fell $3.84 to settle at $73.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.61% from 3.70% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by over ten to one on volume of 1.48 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than six to one on volume of 2.84 billion shares.