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the FED mulai BERAKSI lage … 210210 21 Februari 2010

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 8:40 am

Bursa Wall Street Respons Kebijakan The Fed Rebound Tipis
Sabtu, 20 Februari 2010 – 09:52 wib

Rani Hardjanti – Okezone

NEW YORK – Pasar saham Wall Street mengakhiri pekan ini dengan ditutup rebound tipis. Penguatan ini dipicu oleh sentimen The Fed Rate.

Indeks Dow Jones pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat 19 Februari waktu setempat, menguat tipis 9,45 poin atau 0,09 persen menjadi 10.402,35. Indeks S&P naik 2,42 poin or 0,22 persen ke posisi 1.109,17. Indeks Nasdaq naik 2,16 poin atau 0,10 persen ke posisi 2.243,87.

Dow Jones dalam sepekan naik tiga persen dan indek S&P naik 3,1 persen. Ini merupakan penampilan terbaik sejak November 2009. Selama sepekan indeks Nasdaq naik 2,8 persen, atau terbaik sejak Desember 2009.

“Investor merespons kebijakan The Fed. Yang menjadi pertanyaan, berapa lama kebijakan ini akan berlangsung?” ujar Market Strategist Prudential Financial Quincy Crosby, di Newark, New Jersey, seperti dikutip Reuters, Sabtu (20/2/2010).

Sekadar diketahui, Dewan Gubernur Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (Fed) memutuskan menaikkan bunga diskonto (discount rate) dari 0,5 persen menjadi 0,75 persen.

Discount rate ini dikenakan pada bank yang mengucurkan pinjaman secara langsung. ”Tujuannya untuk menormalisasi fasilitas pinjaman Fed. Perubahan kebijakan ini tidak mengarah pada pengetatan kondisi keuangan untuk rumah tangga dan pebisnis. Juga bukan sinyal perubahan kondisi ekonomi atau kebijakan moneter,” papar Fed, dalam penjelasannya.

Akibatnya, pada Jumat nilai tukar dolar naik, harga komoditas turun, dan saham juga turun.(rhs)

The Good News Is Washington Is Working On It, The Bad News Is Washington Is Working On It

Posted by: Howard Silverblatt on February 19, 2010

The 8.1% market decline from the Jan 19th Bull market high through the Feb 8th pullback low appears to have stabilized, at least for now, with the market gaining back about half of it’s loss, and holding onto a 63% gain, as the one-year anniversary of the Bull rally that started March 9th approaches. Of course, we still need another 41% to get back to the March 2007 high and even more depressing is that the hang over from the 1999 party remains (when the S&P 500 posted an annualized total return of 18.2% for the decade, or 433% in all), with long term investors down 33% from the turn of the century. Oh well, that was yesterday and today is now. And while today is still not clear, it is starting to take shape with familiar issues and arguments. The current debate is between the higher Bank rate by the Fed which could push rates up versa the January Core consumer rate which was down -0.1%, the first negative since 1982; the political debate is over the impact of the stimulus spending on jobs – both prior and the expected new one.

The market has had low volume for several months now, which includes the mini-pullback, and while there have been numerous opportunities inspired by economic, fiscal and issue data to trade, many investors are standing pat, with a sizable amount of cash on the side line. Overall, this lack of commitment is viewed as a sign of uncertainty and to some degree a lack of faith in global leadership to make things better – which in itself is a sad commentary.

Earnings were very good for Q4, and Q1 is also expected to show a nice increase, with a notable increase in Energy mostly due to a devastating Q1,’09 comparative. But sales remain the true issue, and they haven’t increased that much, and future sales growth is expected to be slow. Margins for Q4 were very high due to cost cutting, and that is expected to continue throughout 2010. We have already seen several issues announce additional layoffs, with some being minor when compared to their last year’s move. Humana and Boston Scientific will layoff 2,700 employees, but Merck will cut 15% of their newly acquired Schering-Plough division, Xerox is letting 5% go, and Verizon is targeting 13,000 employees for 2010. Those should help corporate earnings, but they can’t be good for those let go, the economy or municipalities, and they defiantly won’t inspire consumers to go out and spend more, which in the end can’t be good for long term profits.

Balance sheets are looking good. While cash appears to have dropped from its Q3 all time high, it remains very high at 72 weeks of expected 2010 operating income, giving company’s many options, including more aggressive M&A to increase sales. Buybacks are now back in style, at least in the announcements. The actual market buybacks, while up from the lows, remains well off the peak, and I expect that they will stay off their peak, but still outpace dividends, as companies buyback enough shares to prevent dilution, but not enough to improve EPS through share count reduction. The dividend news is all good with more issues increasing, fewer decreasing and coverage ratios for the top payer being at a more comfortable level. I believe the full year will produce a 5.6% dividend gain, with the second half being better than the first, if the economy cooperates.

The bottom line however is that a good deal of the markets fate lies in Washington. Companies can position themselves, develop product, form alliance and trim down, but if the overall economy doesn’t continue to improve, or if consumers and companies don’t believe that it will improve, then it won’t. And the bottom line to that item is jobs. The good news is Washington is working on it, the bad news is Washington is working on it.
U.S. Stocks Gain as CPI Eases Concern Over Fed Rate Increases
February 19, 2010, 04:33 PM EST

Stocks, Dollar Advance on Economy Outlook as Treasuries Decline
Bernanke to Assure Congress Higher Rates Not Imminent (Update1)
Pimco’s El-Erian Says Greece Will Require External Financing
EnergySolutions, Hologic, U.S. Bancorp: U.S. Equity Preview
J.C. Penney Profit Beats Estimates on Women’s Apparel (Update2)
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By Elizabeth Stanton
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, capping the biggest weekly rally since November, as lower-than-projected growth in consumer prices eased concern the Federal Reserve will need to raise its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation.
Boeing Co., Caterpillar Inc. and Chevron Corp. helped lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. Seven of the 10 industry groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced, with financial shares contributing the most to the gain. Smith International Inc. rallied 13 percent on reports it may be acquired by Schlumberger Ltd.
“There’s no inflation for the Fed to fight,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “If easy monetary policy and supportive fiscal policy have helped boost equities thus far, data such as today’s CPI argues for a continuation of supportive policies.”
The S&P 500 increased 0.2 percent to 1,109.17 at 4:04 p.m. in New York. The Dow average climbed 9.45 points, or 0.1 percent, to 10,402.35, trimming its decline for 2010 to less than 0.3 percent after briefly turning positive for the year during the session. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.1 percent to 2,243.87.
Stock-index futures fell in pre-market trading after the Fed raised the discount rate it charges on loans to banks, a decision announced after exchanges closed yesterday. Futures then pared losses after the consumer price index, a gauge of consumer inflation, rose less than forecast. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core CPI fell 0.1 percent, its first drop since 1982. The CPI rose 0.2 percent overall.

Tiger Volume

Trading on all U.S. exchanges slowed at 11 a.m., when Tiger Woods, the winner of 14 major golf tournaments, apologized for his marital infidelity in a televised news conference. Volume fell to 456 million shares during the conference from an average of 576.8 million during the day’s five previous 15-minute segments, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
The S&P 500 and Dow climbed about 3 percent on the week, their biggest advances since the beginning of November. The S&P 500, while still up 64 percent from a 12-year low last March, is down 3.6 percent since Jan. 19 amid concern that widening budget gaps in Greece, Portugal and Spain threaten the European economy.
The Fed raised the discount rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.75 percent, signaling a retreat from its unprecedented actions to halt the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The central bank, which has provided hundreds of billions of dollars in credit to banks, bond dealers and others, said the increase will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets for short-term loans.

‘On the Sidelines’

“As you go through a tightening cycle it constricts growth,” said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial in Boston, which oversees $246 billion. “That impacts future earnings, future profits, future margins. What the market’s doing now is trying to evaluate how quickly and strongly will the tightening be.” The inflation reading “lets the market know the Fed is going to be on the sidelines for a while,” he said.
Rochdale Securities banking analyst Richard X. Bove advised clients in a note today to “buy the dip,” saying the Fed’s actions are positive for shares of lenders. Bove raised U.S. Bancorp to “buy” from “neutral,” helping to send its shares up 1 percent.
“Any reading of history shows that bank earnings go up when interest rates are rising and bank earnings fall when interest rates are declining,” Bove wrote in the note. “These stocks are inexpensive and should be bought.”

Financials Gain

Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent as a group. Class B shares of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. rallied 2.7 percent to $78.74, a 15-month high.
Boeing, the world’s second-largest commercial-plane maker, rose 1.1 percent to $63.59 and contributed most to the Dow average’s advance. Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, climbed 0.8 percent to $58.25. Chevron, the second-biggest U.S. energy company, increased 0.6 percent to $74.05.
Schlumberger fell 2.9 percent to $63.90. The world’s largest oilfield services provider is close to a deal to buy Smith International, one of the largest drilling-fluids providers, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Smith International rose 13 percent to $37.70.
Intuit Inc. rallied 7.9 percent to $32.72. The world’s biggest maker of tax-preparation software reported second- quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as U.S. taxpayers began filing returns and more small companies bought finance software.

Earnings Season

J.C. Penney Co. rose 6.6 percent to $27.66. The third- largest U.S. department-store chain posted profit that fell less than analysts predicted.
The combined per-share earnings for the S&P 500 are $17.43 based on fourth-quarter reports by 423 companies, according to Bloomberg data, compared with a per-share loss of 9 cents in the year-earlier period, according to Standard & Poor’s. Per-share profit declined from the year-earlier figure in each of the past nine quarters, a record slump.
Dell Inc. tumbled 6.7 percent to $13.47 after the personal- computer maker said holiday sales of low-priced PCs and higher component costs crimped earnings. Gross margin, the percentage of sales that remain after deducting production costs, was 17.4 percent, below the 18 percent projected on average by analysts.
Apollo Group Inc. fell 7.4 percent to $56.92. The operator of the for-profit University of Phoenix forecast second-quarter earnings excluding some items of 79 cents to 84 cents a share, compared with an average estimate of 93 cents in a Bloomberg survey of 20 analysts.
First Solar Inc. dropped 8.2 percent to $116, the most in the S&P 500, after the world’s largest maker of thin-film solar power modules reiterated its prior 2010 sales and profit forecasts, disappointing investors who had expected an increase.

–With assistance from Rita Nazareth in New York. Editors: Michael Regan, Joanna Ossinger


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