1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

cara laen MAEN SAHAM, beneran … 080610 8 Juni 2010

Filed under: Teknik Maen Saham — bumi2009fans @ 5:31 am

Dollar Cost Averaging

A Technique that Drastically Reduces Market Risk

By , About.com Guide

… sebenarnya investasi dan tabungan/deposito TIDAK BERBEDA, yaitu alat keuangan yang diawali dengan penyisihan sebagian pemasukan keuangan pribadi untuk dimasukkan dalam investasi/tabungan/deposito, dan dalam jangka waktu panjang akan memberikan hasil yang lebih besar daripada kebutuhan sehari-hari / inflasi …
… namun berdasarkan penelitian sederhana (coba baca posting ini :  https://yangvirtualyangnyata.wordpress.com/2010/05/23/inflasi-investasi-dan-saham/) ternyata investasi, khususnya di saham, bisa benar-benar menaklukkan keganasan inflasi dalam jangka panjang …
… sebagai alat keuangan yang berbeda ciri dari tabungan/deposito, saham sering disalahtafsirkan melulu sebagai MERUGIKAN investor … karena tren turun naek harganya … bahkan dalam jangka menengah sering disalahtafsirkan sebagai memiliki sifat MERUGIKAN investor karena hampir selalu cenderung turun harganya …
… kesalahan analisis yang umum ini, yaitu bahwa MAEN SAHAM SELALU MERUGIKAN investor, karena ketidakpahaman atau KETIDAKTAHUAN bahwa sebenarnya maen saham yang BENERAN itu seharusnya adalah untuk JANGKA PANJANG, bukan untuk jangka pendek … ini yang gw sebut sebagai cara CERDAS …
… nah, kemarin 07 Juni 2010, gw kembali diundang menghadiri market update yang diselenggarakan oleh sebuah bank penjual reksa dana, tempat gw inves … sang narasumber, yaitu direktur utama sebuah manajer investasi swasta asien-K, menuturkan caranya berinvestasi pada reksa dana, yaitu BAK MENABUNG, yaitu menyisihkan sebagian kecil pemasukannya secara rutin setiap bulan dimasukkan dalam portofolio reksa dana yang sudah tertentu dan dilakukan proses subscriptionnya secara otomatis oleh bank penjualnya … lalu doi bilang, doi SAMA SEKALI TIDAK MEMPERHATIKAN PERGERAKAN NAEK TURUN NILAI AKTIVA BERSIH REKSA DANANYA, dan DOI TIDAK MAU DIPENGARUHI OLEH ANGGAPAN umum investor, bahwa SAHAM SELALU MERUGIKAN … doi yakin bahwa saat pensiun doi akan MENERIMA HASIL YANG MAKSIMUM, yaitu karena MENERAPKAN CARA INVESTASI YANG CERDAS, dollar cost averaging dalam jangka panjang
… contoh sederhana, misalnya dalam 7 bulan saham bbri mengalami pergerakan turun naek antara harga terendah dan tertinggi pada rentang :
8300
8900
berturut-turut, misalnya, dari bulan ke bulan (selama 7 bulan) doi membeli saham bbri dengan harga sbb:
8300
8450
8300
8650
8400
8800
8900
maka harga rata2 beli doi secara dollar cost averaging dalam 7 bulan tersebut adalah:
8542,87
ini berarti harga rata2 tersebut berada 242 di atas harga terendah beli, dan 358 di bawah harga tertinggi beli
secara jangka panjang BIAYA BELI SAHAM TERSEBUT jauh lebih menguntungkan karena MENDEKATI grafik harga beli terendah, dan MENJAUHI  grafik harga beli tertinggi … well, ini adalah salah satu cara lagi :

Dollar cost averaging is a technique designed to reduce market risk through the systematic purchase of securities at predetermined intervals and set amounts. Many successfulinvestors already practice without realizing it. Many others could save themselves a lot of time, effort and money by beginning a plan. In this article, you will learn the three steps to beginning a dollar cost averaging plan, look at concrete examples of how it can lower an investor’s cost basis, and discover how it reduces risk.

Dollar Cost Averaging: What is It?

Instead of investing assets in a lump sum, the investor works his way into a position by slowly buying smaller amounts over a longer period of time. This spreads the cost basis out over several years, providing insulation against changes in market price.

Setting Up Your Own Dollar Cost Averaging Plan

In order to begin a dollar cost averaging plan, you must do three things:

  1. Decide exactly how much money you can invest each month. Make certain that you are financially capable of keeping the amount consistent; otherwise the plan will not be as effective.
  2. Select an investment (index funds are particularly appropriate, but we will get to that in a moment) that you want to hold for the long term, preferably five to ten years or longer.
  3. At regular intervals (weekly, monthly or quarterly works best), invest that money into the security you’ve chosen. If your broker offers it, set up an automatic withdrawal plan so the process becomes automated.

An Example of a Dollar Cost Averaging Plan

You have $15,000 you want to invest in Sprint FON common stock. The date is January 1, 2000. You have two options: you can invest the money as a lump sum now, walk away and forget about it, or you can set up a dollar cost averaging plan and ease your way into the stock. You opt for the latter and decide to invest $1,250 each quarter for three years. (See chart for math of dollar cost averaging plan.)Had you invested your $15,000 in January 2000, you would have purchased 264.46 shares at $56.72 each. When the stock closed for the year in December of 2002 at $13.69, your holdings would only be worth $3,620!

Had you dollar cost averaged into the stock over the past three years, however, you would own 746.21 shares; at the closing price, this gives your holdings a market value of $10,216. Although still a loss, Sprint FON stock must only go up to $20.10 for you to break even, not $56.72, which would have been required without the dollar cost averaging.

To go a step further, without dollar cost averaging you would break even at $56.72. With dollar cost averaging, you would have turned a profit of $27,326 when the stock hit that price thanks to your lower cost basis ($56.72 sell price – $20.10 average cost basis = $36.62 profit x 746.21 shares = $27,326 total profit.)

Combining the Power of Dollar Cost Averaging with the Diversification of a Mutual Fund

Index funds are passively managed mutual funds that are designed to mimic the returns of benchmarks such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. An investor that puts money into a fund designed to mimic the Wilshire 5000, for example, is literally going to own a fractional interest in every one of the five thousand stocks that make up that index. This instant diversification comes with the added bonus. Traditionally, management fees of passive funds are less than one-tenth those of their actively managed counterparts. Over the course of a decade, for example, this can add up to tens of thousands of dollars the investor would have paid in fees to the mutual fund company that, instead, are accruing to his or her benefit.The dollar cost averaging component reduces market risk, while the index fund investment reduces company-specific risk. This combination can be among the best investment options for individuals looking to build up their long term wealth by having a portion of theirportfolio in equities.

Table 1: Sprint FON with Dollar Cost Averaging Plan
Invest date Amount Price per share Shares purchased
Jan. 2000 $1,250 $56.72 22.04
Apr. 2000 $1,250 $54.19 23.07
Jul. 2000 $1,250 $31.34 39.27
Oct. 2000 $1,250 $22.60 53.31
Jan. 2001 $1,250 $22.10 56.50
Apr. 2001 $1,250 $19.05 65.62
Oct. 2001 $1,250 $18.13 68.95
Jan. 2002 $1,250 $16.14 77.45
Apr. 2002 $1,250 $14.58 85.73
Jul. 2002 $1,250 $8.66 144.34
Oct. 2002 $1,250 $11.64 107.39
Total $15,000 $20.10 avg. 746.21 shares owned

liat lagi contoh berikut pada saham ENRG:

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
Jun 4, 2010 129.00 129.00 124.00 125.00 102,107,000 125.00
May 4, 2010 147.00 147.00 143.00 144.00 72,598,500 144.00
Apr 5, 2010 143.00 145.00 135.00 138.00 251,923,500 138.00
Mar 4, 2010 159.00 160.00 157.00 157.00 110,840,000 157.00
Feb 4, 2010 174.00 177.00 173.00 176.00 1,195,071,500 176.00
Jan 4, 2010 195.00 197.00 192.00 193.00 65,171,500 193.00
Dec 4, 2009 215.00 215.00 205.00 210.00 98,437,000 210.00
Nov 4, 2009 290.00 325.00 290.00 325.00 570,738,000 325.00
Oct 5, 2009 370.00 380.00 370.00 380.00 44,884,000 380.00
Sep 4, 2009 380.00 380.00 365.00 375.00 57,325,000 375.00
Aug 4, 2009 375.00 380.00 360.00 375.00 368,097,500 375.00
Jul 6, 2009 355.00 355.00 325.00 330.00 88,080,000 330.00
Jun 5, 2009 455.00 465.00 450.00 455.00 124,494,500 455.00

… maka jika beli pada harga penutupan (close) tersebut di atas, secara rata2 harga beli menjadi: 260,23

… ini berarti 194,77 LEBIH RENDAH daripada harga tertinggi (455) dan 135,23 LEBIH TINGGI daripada harga terendah (125) … jelas dalam 1 taon dalam tren utama yaitu BEARISH TRENDS, tren turun, maka harga rata2 itu maseh lebih lumayan bagus … yaitu lebih rendah daripada 7 harga yang tinggi, dan lebih tinggi hanya dari 6 harga yang rendah … semoga menolong

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2 Responses to “cara laen MAEN SAHAM, beneran … 080610”

  1. […] yang disebut juga sebagai dollar averaging cost (baca link ini : https://transaksisaham.wordpress.com/2010/06/08/cara-laen-maen-saham-beneran-080610/ ) WP_SLIDESHOW_IMAGES = { load: […]


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