1NVEST0R MAND1R1 maen SAHAM bener

belajar MANDIRI, akan JAUH LEBE SUKSES (SEJAK 210809)

yolanda: pajak kok RAME banget seh 23 Januari 2009

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 5:04 pm

Pajak obligasi akan dipangkas jadi 15%.
Kamis, 22 January 2009

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Rencana ini tertuang dalam draft Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) mengenai pajak atas imbal hasil
obligasi. Meski demikian, pemotongan pajak itu hanya berlaku bagi investor lokal, sedangkan investor asing masih dikenai pajak 20%. (chris_02_ip)
… wadow, masih ketinggian kale … imbal hasil obligasi khan naek turun ga keruan-keruanan … makanya investasi obligasi dan turunannya adalah tetap berisiko tinggi, kenapa harus segitu tinggi … ntar pada kabur lho … manajer investasi mesti bersuara keras, atau bikin produk terkait dengan imbal hasil obligasi yang jauh lebe mantap dan menarik (semi protektif; atawa yang lebe kreatif misalnya terkait justru dengan penurunan imbal hasil, nilai aktiva bersih juga ikut naek)

Iklan
 

Tak perlu keliling DUNIA: tumbuh 6,2%, reksa dana saham anjlok 40% yoy 2 Januari 2009

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 1:35 pm

Kamis, 01/01/2009 16:31 WIB
Ekonomi RI 2008 Tumbuh 6,2%
Jakarta – Di tengah tekanan krisis perekonomian global, perekonomian Indonesia mampu mencatat pertumbuhan 6,2%. Namun angka ini masih lebih rendah dibandingkan asumsi dalam APBNP 2008 sebesar 6,4%.

Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi itu dicapai meski pada triwulan III dan perkiraan di triwulan IV tahun 2008 mulai mengalami perlambatan

“Secara umum pencapaian indikator ekonomi makro nasional dalam tahun 2008 masih baik, walaupun dalam beberapa bulan terakhir mendapat tekanan yang cukup berat sebagai imbas krisis keuangan global,” ujar Kepala Biro Humas Dekpeu, Harry Z. Soeratin dalam siaran persnya, Kamis (1/1/2009).

Berikut realisasi APBN-P tahun 2008:

  • Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,2% (APBN-P : 6,4%)
  • Tingkat inflasi di sekitar 11,4% (APBN-P : 6,5%)
  • Suku Bunga SBI-3 bulan diperkirakan rata-rata 9,3% (APBN-P : 7,5%)
  • Nilai tukar Rupiah diperkirakan rata-rata Rp 9.691/US$ (APBN-P : Rp9.100/US$)
  • Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (ICP) sekitar rata-rata US$ 96,8/barel (APBN-P : US$95/barel)
  • Lifting minyak mentah Indonesia yang dapat mencapai 931 ribu barel per hari (APBN-P : 927 ribu barel per hari).

(qom/qom)

…. berarti ini adalah pengalaman pertama bwat reksa dana saham gw, bahwa angka pertumbuhan ekonomi naik dan positif pun bisa aja memberikan hasil reksa dana year over year menjadi negatif (lihat contoh di bawah) ekonomi tak serius: Tak perlu KELILING DUNIA: perkembangan reksa dana 2008… penting sekali diversifikasi dilakukan sejak dini, itu yang gw lakukan … antisipasi contrarian juga harus dilakukan … tetapi kombinasi dengan strategi jangka panjang tetap harus diberlakukan supaya kestabilan jangka panjang juga terjadi … susah ya, jadi investor yang benar2 berhasil dalam jangka panjang… eh, gw jadi ingat pengalaman naek qantas pas sampe di sydney airport, wadow benar2 mendebarkan karena sudah diperingatkan oleh pilot bahwa approachnya bakal diganggu oleh turbulensi angin dari laut (siang) … s/d 2 kali approach ke landing di atas landasan gagal dilakukan, dan harus terbang kembali sebelum menyentuh landasan … hebatnya, sang pilot tetap optimistik bahwa dalam 5 menit kemudian doi akan bisa mendaratkan pesawat, walau pun dalam suara tertekan juga… gw jadi teringat kasus garuda di yogya taon 2007, ketika pilot memaksakan pesawat landing walau pun ko-pilot sudah menganjurkan untuk naek kembali karena kecepatan pesawat masih terlalu tinggi dan kemungkinan terjadi overshoot … terbukti, gara2 memaksakan landing, fatal akibatnya … emang pilot yang lebih rasional biasanya lebih mudah mengatasi ketidakpastian … jadi, investasi adalah sebuah tindakan rasional menghadapi ketidakpastian juga seh … semoga

contoh: fortis ekuitas: -54,38%; manulife dana saham: -49,68%; phinisi dana saham: -45,76%; schroder dana prestasi plus: -41,85%; manulife dana campuran: -29,45%.

 

putus nyambung: optimistik realistik anti-resesi anti-deflasi anti-anjlok… 29 Desember 2008

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 5:28 pm
Report Publish : December 26, 2008
Reasons for report : –
trimegah securities
Market Strategy (-)
Tittle : Outlook 2009 : Still Positive?
Analyst : Arhya Satyagraha
  • Global recession fears warrants a cautious outlook, 14.3% of our GDP is contributed from exports. Hence, an economic slowdown in our trading partners will result in a weaker 2009 GDP growth. Having said that and considering that our GDP is still predominantly driven by domestic consumption, we are still optimistic that our GDP will grow by 5.85%. We also see inflationary pressures to continue moderating hence, inflation is expected to fall to 6.88%. Moderating inflation along with monetary easing will result in further rate cuts to 8.5%.
  • The market may not have fully priced in the negatives and we are likely to see another pullback in the later part of 1Q09. This correction may lead to lows in 2009 as well as lows during this troubled times. Prepare to see the IDX trade at 900. The likely pullback will be driven by profit taking on data flows over 1Q09. Critical data flows are monthly economic readings and corporate earnings for FY08 and 1Q09. These data will provide the market with a glimpse of the impact the global recession will have on Indonesia. Hence, revisions in economic data as well as corporate earnings are likely to occur, further fueling the expected correction.
  • However, hope is not lost. We believe confidence in equities is still strong given that there were no major foreign fund outflows. In fact, the IDX posted a positive US$1.7bn in foreign fund inflows. Corporate earnings are also intact as we estimate earnings to still grow by 2.0%. The Government´s decision to revise the Income Tax Law, which effectively reduces tax rates to 28% and 25% for 2009 and 2010 onwards, is also a positive. Companies with free float of 40% and above will enjoy a further 5% tax cut. Meanwhile, falling commodity prices in 2008 is also expected to be limited, which will help ease further downward pressure on the index.
  • Having said the above, we remain positive. We believe the IDX is inline for another correction in the later part of 1Q09, or after this Bear Market Rally is over. A period of consolidation will occur between 2Q09 and 3Q09 before the IDX claws its way back up. Focus on earning defensive sectors such as Banks and Utilities (Telecommunications and Gas), and strong FY08 earnings along with the correction provide opportunities on dividend plays. As such, we have placed an index target of 1,700 for FY09, implying FY09 P/E of 8.9x, which is in the lower end of our 6-year historical P/E band.
 

jangan kau lepaS: PNM nyeret siapa lagi … 17 Desember 2008

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 9:07 am

Rabu, 17/12/2008

Pemerintah dukung upaya hukum PNM tagih repo Bakrie
bisnis indonesia
JAKARTA: Pemerintah mendukung upaya hukum yang ditempuh oleh PT PNM Investment Management untuk menarik dana nasabahnya senilai Rp1,4 triliun yang masih tersangkut dalam transaksi repo dengan PT Bakrie Capital Indonesia dan PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk.

Meneg BUMN Sofyan A. Djalil mengatakan anak perusahaan PT Permodalan Nasional Madani (PNM) itu harus memastikan dana nasabah dikembalikan secara utuh. Dalam waktu dekat, katanya, pemerintah akan meminta penjelasan kepada PNM terkait dengan persoalan repurchase agreement (repo) itu.

“Harus ada mekanisme hukum yang dilakukan untuk penagihan. Jika ada dana yang nyangkut di transaksi repo tersebut, ya harus ditagih,” tuturnya kemarin.

PNM dan Kejaksaan menandatangani nota kerja sama dalam rangka penyelesaian masalah hukum perdata dan tata usaha negara pada 27 November.

Sofyan menambahkan transaksi repo belum tentu merupakan kebijakan salah, mengingat hal itu wajar. Namun, kedua belah pihak yang bertransaksi repo harus menjalankan sesuai dengan komitmen.

“Dulu ada komitmen dari pihak Bakrie untuk menyelesaikan repo itu. Repot PMN kalo ada dana kelolaannya nyangkut di situ,” ujarnya. Dana kelolaan PNM Investment yang tersangkut dalam transaksi repo itu setara dengan 40% dari total dana kelolaan. Sebelumnya, perseroan hanya mengungkap nilai transaksi repo senilai Rp231,81 miliar. (arif.gunawan@bisnis.co.id)

Oleh Arif Gunawan S.

 

andai kutau: Dolar menguat lagi? Rupiah terancam… 27 November 2008

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 10:08 am

reuters.com: A fresh wave of weak U.S. economic data drove safe-haven buying in U.S. government bonds and lifted the U.S. dollar.

… ga lah yaow, karena : perhatikan grafik di sebelah tentang TINGKAT KECEMASAN INVESTOR … jelas sejak agustus s/d november minggu ke 3: kecemasan investor naek turun dalam tren dari bullish ke stagnan, tapi minggu 4 November: cenderung bearish … investor mulai PEDE, artinya investasi mereka MENINGKAT dong, ke investasi RISIKO TINGGI IMBAL HASIL TINGGI (gain tinggi)… tetap don’t put all your eggs in one basket
catatan: grafik di atas hasil penelitian di amrik bo; tapi liat gejala2nya mirip lah di bei
 

Don’t wait for January Effect, wait for Valentine Month 23 November 2008

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 4:32 pm

I am convinced the stock market is at its least efficient today. Don’t read too much into any move. Here are the five biggest dislocations taking place:

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Tax-loss selling: Whenever you have a loss in a stock — and who doesn’t — it’s always tax smart to sell it, take a tax loss and either buy something similar or wait 30 days and buy the original one back. December can be an ugly month of indiscriminate selling. The December effect will be huge this year. Mutual-fund redemptions: Mutual funds are also dumped for tax losses. When the stock market is down in the morning, it’s usually because of mutual-fund redemptions.

Fidelity’s giant Magellan fund, down 56%, is one of many in the $6 trillion stock-fund business having an awful year. As investors call or click to get out of these funds, Fidelity and the others have to unload shares the next morning to raise cash. This forced-selling overwhelms the system. New York Stock Exchange specialists, who are supposed to maintain an orderly market, stop buying and back away. You get huge drops, which can unnerve even more investors and cause them to redeem.

Mutual fund cap-gain distributions: To make matters worse, in December mutual funds do capital-gains distributions. In a down year like 2008, you would think there are no taxes to pay. Think again. Legg Mason’s Value Trust, run by Bill Miller, outperformed the market for 15 years by buying many “unvalue” names like Amazon. As investors redeem, he is forced to sell many of these stocks originally purchased at very low prices, triggering huge capital gains in a year his fund is down 62%. You can almost guarantee investors also will sell more of these funds to pay their unexpected tax bill. Hedge-fund redemptions: Instead of overnight selling like mutual funds, hedge funds typically require 45 days’ notice for investors to get out of a fund. They’ve been furiously selling since September to raise cash to pay investors. This usually shows up as a set of stocks that just go down and down and down with no obvious explanation.

Rubbing salt in hedge-fund wounds is the fact that Lehman Brothers was a prime broker to many hedge funds, holding their shares. While Lehman’s bankruptcy was not a problem in the U.S., in England the policy is to freeze accounts until the mess can be sorted out. There are billions in assets locked in this bankruptcy, and hedge funds are forced to sell positions in the U.S. and elsewhere to raise cash, exacerbating the downside here.

By the way, when hedge funds are down for the year, they work practically for free until they make up the loss. We’ll see hedge funds close and stocks liquidated as — no surprise — hedge-fund managers like to get paid.

Margin calls: Whenever stocks go down sharply, you quickly find who owns them with debt. We have seen spectacular margin calls, a requirement for more capital to cover share losses. Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon unloaded 33 million shares to cover losses. Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone had a forced sale of $400 million in Viacom and CBS shares because of a margin call on other stocks. You can bet many not-so-public margin calls are behind many huge price drops. These usually take place in the last 30 minutes of trading.

So won’t January be alright once these dislocations weighing on the market are lifted? The January effect is supposed to be positive.

Well, often money managers are fired at the end of disastrous years. A new manager comes in, looks at the existing positions and dumps them all and remakes the portfolio with new stocks that he likes, thus generating more selling. My favorite Wall Street adage suggests that the stock market trades to inflict the maximum amount of pain. Remember, you can only ignore the stock market for so long. Once everyone thinks it can only go down . . . it might go up.

 

menurut Jeremy Siegel 18 November 2008

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 9:39 am

Over time, the total return on stocks has exceeded that of any other class of asset. This is shown in Figure 1, which compares the total returns to stocks, long- and short-term government bonds, gold, and commodities (measured by the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.). One dollar invested in stocks in 1802 would have grown to $8.8 million in 2003, in bonds to $16,064, in treasury bills to $4,575, and in gold to $19.75. The CPI has risen by a factor of 14.22, almost all of it after World War II.
The average compound after-inflation rate of return on stocks from 1802 through 2002 was 6.8 percent per year, and this number has remained remarkably steady over time. A 6.8 percent annual rate of return means that if all dividends are reinvested, the purchasing power of stocks has doubled, on average, every ten years over the past two centuries. This return far exceeds that of other financial assets. This evidence shows that, over long periods of time, the price of stocks fully compensates stockholders for any inflation, as the real return on stocks since World War II is virtually identical to that prior to that war.